Aquaculture Emerges as Leading Protein Growth Sector, Outpacing Beef and Pork in 2024

In a significant projection by Rabobank analysts, the global aquaculture industry is poised to witness growth exceeding 2% by 2024, surpassing rivals such as chicken, pork, and beef. This growth trend is particularly pronounced as pork and beef producers grapple with elevated labor and structural costs.

Justin Sherrard, the Global Strategist at Rabobank, highlighted that the aquaculture sector is anticipated to lead protein production growth globally. Poultry, notably chicken, represents the only other protein category expecting notable growth, albeit at just over 1.5%. Conversely, beef, wild seafood, and pork are anticipated to experience contractions in 2024.

Analysts foresee a decline of nearly 1% in beef and wild seafood production, while pork production is expected to dip by 0.5%. Sherrard attributes the challenges faced by all protein groups to market uncertainty and the industry's intricate balance between supply and demand.

Structural challenges, characterized by escalating labor costs and concerns surrounding investment sustainability, are anticipated to exert pressure on producers in 2024, particularly within the beef sector and, to a certain extent, in pork and chicken production. Sherrard noted that amidst macroeconomic uncertainties, consumer purchasing behavior tends to favor reduced-price options, with chicken positioned to benefit from this trend.

Rabobank emphasized that global trade will continue to face hurdles, grappling with biosecurity concerns, protectionist policies, and climate-related issues, with the looming threat of the El Niño phenomenon in 2024.

Despite efforts such as National Seafood Month promotions in the U.S. during October, encouraging increased consumption of fish and shellfish, the desired impact on consumer behavior at supermarkets remains subdued. Competing proteins, priced more attractively, have hindered the potential for increased seafood purchases. Retail data from market research firm Circana (formerly IRI) analyzed by 210 Analytics revealed that total U.S. seafood retail prices experienced a 0.7% decline in the 52 weeks leading to October. However, the average price per pound stood at $9.31 (€8.60), significantly higher than the $3.02 (€2.80) for chicken, $3.14 (€2.90) for pork, and $6.15 (€5.70) for beef, indicating the challenges faced by seafood in terms of price competitiveness.