Sinopec Releases Comprehensive Forecast of Global and Chinese Energy Landscape

Sinopec has released a comprehensive forecast of the global and Chinese energy landscape in the next few decades. Sinopec has made detailed forecasts on global fossil energy and renewable energy. The main points include:

Global primary energy consumption: It is expected to reach a peak of 26.71 billion tons of standard coal in 2045, and renewable energy will account for 51.8% of total energy consumption in 2060.

Slowing growth in energy consumption: Global energy consumption will gradually slow down, reaching 25.25 billion tons of standard coal by 2060, when oil and natural gas will account for 35.7% of total energy consumption.

Peak oil demand: Oil consumption is expected to peak at 4.66 billion tons around 2030. Although the focus of consumption shifts from transportation to industrial raw materials, oil will remain the main transportation fuel, accounting for 40% of total transportation energy demand by 2060.

Non-fossil energy growth: Non-fossil energy sources such as hydrogen, CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage) and advanced energy storage technologies are growing significantly. It is expected that hydrogen energy consumption will exceed 340 million tons by 2060, and its energy use share will increase from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2060. It is expected that CCUS production capacity will reach 110 million tons of carbon dioxide capture by 2030 and 4.7 billion tons by 2060.

"China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition)" provides an in-depth discussion of China's energy consumption and transformation, emphasizing the peak energy consumption: China's primary energy consumption is expected to enter a stable period after 2030, with a peak between 6.8 and 7.1 billion tons of standard coal. Oil consumption will peak before 2027, reaching up to 800 million tons. Natural gas consumption is expected to enter a period of medium-to-high growth, especially between 2026 and 2030, when consumption is expected to increase by more than 110 billion cubic meters.

Shift to non-fossil energy: By 2035, non-fossil energy generation is expected to exceed fossil fuel generation, reaching 8,400TWh. Between 2026 and 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 27%. China's energy consumption transformation will increasingly rely on a diversified mix of electricity, hydrogen, ammonia and other clean alternative energy sources.

Carbon emissions peak: China’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase slightly from 10.66 billion tons to a peak range of 10.8-11.2 billion tons. This trajectory will help ensure that China achieves its carbon emissions peak target by 2030.

The "2025 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report" provides an in-depth analysis of the development process of China's energy and chemical industry:

Refining capacity: China's refining capacity is close to its peak, and total refining output will stabilize at 960-970 million tons per year by 2025.

Challenges in the chemical industry: Although the chemical market has achieved significant growth, it still faces challenges such as overcapacity in the olefins and aromatics industry and continued high production of bulk chemicals.

Innovation drives growth: Innovation is seen as the main force driving China's energy and chemical industry towards a more sustainable future.