August 12 news
According to the SpotCom AI assistant, on August 11, the Chinese fuel oil 180CST market maintained a consolidation trend, with the quotation range at 5800-6400 CNY/ton. Combining the average difference indicator and price cycle position analysis, the current market is in a strong rebound and slightly bullish state of fluctuation, with prices in a mid-high position within a 1-year cycle, and there are certain limitations to the upward space.
I. Review of Recent Market Price Changes
August 6: The self-pickup price for low-sulfur 180CST fuel oil in the Shanghai area by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) was 5,900 CNY/ton, a decrease of 250 CNY/ton from the previous trading day; the price range in the Chinese market was 5,900-6,400 CNY/ton, with a downward trend.
August 7: The Shanghai region’s quoted price from China Gas has been further reduced by 100 CNY/ton to 5,800 CNY/ton. The quoted price range in the Chinese market is now between 5,800 and 6,400 CNY/ton, and the market trend continues to decline.
August 10: The quoted price for Zhongran in the Qingdao region is 6,700 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The price range for the Chinese market remains at 5,800–6,400 CNY/ton, and the market is entering a consolidation phase.
August 11: The market quotation range in China remains at 5800-6400 CNY/ton, with the market trend continuing to consolidate.
II. Analysis of the Mean Difference Index
Mean Difference Variation Table
Difference Type Today's Value (August 11) Yesterday's Value (August 10) Direction of Change
5-day average difference (D5) 0.00 -8.75 +
10-day average difference (D10) -23.75 -26.25 +
20-day average difference (D20) -11.88 -6.25 -
Signal status determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, +, -), which aligns with the strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
Trend Direction Conclusion
The price trend is volatile (leaning bullish). Reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent with those of the previous day. Specifically, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have narrowed from negative values, indicating short-term price momentum for a rebound; however, the 20-day moving average has weakened further, suggesting that medium-term trends still face downward pressure. Overall, the market is in a strong rebound phase characterized by volatility and a slight bullish bias.
III. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price range: Mid-to-high level
3-month cycle price position: High level
1 year cycle price position: mid-high
Prices are in the mid-to-high range, with limited room for further increases; any short-term rebound is likely to be capped by upward pressure.
IV. 1-Year Trend Chart
Five, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
