Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Drug Trial Data Falls Short Again Shares Plunge by 8 Percent

Novo Nordisk has experienced another setback as it released disappointing data from its late-stage trial for CagriSema, a new obesity treatment. On March 11, 2025, the company reported that the results from the REDEFINE 2 trial did not meet market expectations, causing its shares to drop by 8%.

Investors had hoped that CagriSema would outperform Novo's successful drug Wegovy and rival Mounjaro from Eli Lilly. While the trial data indicated that participants lost an average of 13.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks, this figure fell short of the 15% threshold analysts deemed necessary to prove its superiority over Mounjaro. When considering only participants who completed the trial, weight loss was reported at 15.7%, compared to just 3.1% for the placebo group.

The REDEFINE 2 trial involved approximately 1,200 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a body mass index of 27 or higher. Despite the marginal weight loss benefits, analysts expressed frustration over what they perceived as overly optimistic expectations set by Novo Nordisk. Jefferies analysts revised their forecast for CagriSema's peak sales down to $7.25 billion, significantly lower than the $13 billion consensus.

The competitive landscape is intensifying, especially as Eli Lilly's Mounjaro continues to gain traction. In the U.S., weekly prescriptions for Mounjaro have now surpassed those for Wegovy, raising concerns for Novo Nordisk. The company plans to seek regulatory approval for CagriSema in early 2026, a slight delay aimed at ensuring supply chain readiness.

This disappointing data follows a previous trial resultin December, which also failed to impress investors, wiping out as much as $125 billion from Novo's market value. As Novo Nordisk grapples with these challenges, the future of CagriSema remains uncertain, leaving many in the industry questioning its potential in the competitive obesity drug market.