July 9 Tariff Deadline Looms as Tuna Prices Decline Globally

The approaching July 9 deadline for US reciprocal tariff negotiations has heightened market uncertainty, as tuna raw material prices continue to fall in key markets like Bangkok and Manta.

In Bangkok, Thai tuna prices averaged $1,510 per ton, with deals ranging from $1,470 to $1,550 per ton. Larger canneries secured lower prices, but buyers have reportedly pressured prices down using tariff concerns as leverage. Meanwhile, in Manta, Ecuador, tuna prices were higher at $1,600 per ton, supported by strong demand and favorable fishing conditions. Yellowfin tuna from Ecuador dropped to $2,100 per ton, reflecting increased supply.

Thailand's tuna exports to the US face significant risks if tariffs rise. Chanintr Chalisarapong, General Manager of Thai Union, warned that Thailand’s tuna exports to the US could decline by 60% by 2026 if the 36% tariff remains.

In other regions, Indian Ocean tuna catches have slowed, with skipjack prices stable at €1,300 per ton and yellowfin at €2,000 per ton. In the Atlantic, skipjack prices in Côte d'Ivoire held at €1,350 per ton, while yellowfin was priced around €2,250 per ton.

Fuel costs remain a critical factor. Ecuador ended its diesel subsidies last week, raising fishing costs, but also committed $42 million to modernize its aging fleet, with most vessels over 50 years old.

As the global tuna market adjusts to shifting prices and policy changes, the July 9 tariff decision will be pivotal in shaping trade flows and pricing dynamics.