June 26th, it was reported that
Recent domestic butadiene rubber prices in China have continued to decline. Data shows that as of June 26, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 12,830 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 13,010 CNY/ton at the end of February. The closing price of the main futures contract for butadiene rubber fell to 11,810 CNY/ton. It has completely given up all the price increase brought by the Middle East geopolitical conflict and returned to the baseline range before the conflict erupted.
As tensions in the Middle East have fully eased, the geopolitical speculation driving commodity prices has completely collapsed. International crude oil prices have been fluctuating and weakening, directly prompting a sustained downward trend in butadiene prices. Data show that current butadiene port inventories remain high at 38,500 tons, up slightly by 2.39% from the previous month. With ample raw material supply and downward pressure on prices, the cost center for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber production continues to decline, providing solid cost support for the ongoing fall in rubber prices. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 26, butadiene prices stood at 8,900 CNY per ton, down 10.94% from the February 26 level of 9,993 CNY per ton.
Butadiene rubber supply and demand pressures have further accelerated the price decline. Recently, the production profit of the butadiene rubber industry in China has slightly improved, boosting the enthusiasm of enterprises for production. The operating rate of facilities has steadily increased, with the latest industry capacity utilization rate rising to 69.26%, and the market supply continues to increase.
Currently, the downstream tire industry is in the traditional off-season, with a slight decrease in the operating rates of terminal tire companies. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of purchasing according to demand and buying as needed, resulting in weak essential purchasing power, which makes it difficult to absorb the ample market supply. As of June 18, the operating rate of semi-steel tire production by Chinese tire companies was around 69%; in Shandong, the operating rate of all-steel tire production by tire companies was approximately 66%.
Outlook:
In early April 2026, after the moving averages formed a death cross, it entered a long-term downward channel, with both lines continuously in a bearish arrangement, leading to a significant drop in price. The current bearish pattern of the moving averages remains unchanged.
Overall, the current butadiene rubber market prices, costs, and supply and demand data have returned to the pre-Middle East conflict fundamental levels, with the overall market trading sentiment being cautious. In the short term, the geopolitical benefits have completely dissipated, and the raw material butadiene still has room for decline. Coupled with high industry production and continued weak downstream demand during the off-season, rubber prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend.
