August Petrochemical Coke Market Trends: Prices First Rise, Then Fall

September 02, News

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries in August first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase. The average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major local refineries in China was 2,435 CNY/ton on September 2nd, compared to 2,390 CNY/ton on August 1st, representing a monthly price increase of 1.88%.

Cost perspective: Since August, international crude oil prices have weakened, with the monthly average price declining for two consecutive months. The primary negative factor behind the drop in oil prices in August was OPEC+’s unwavering stance on increasing production, which created a bearish market sentiment. Additionally, the U.S. has been actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, leading to a noticeable easing of geopolitical tensions.

Supply side: In early August, the trading of petroleum coke from local refineries in China was good, with downstream carbon enterprises restocking and replenishing their inventories. Coupled with low inventories of petroleum coke at refineries, the price of petroleum coke continued to rise. In mid-to-late August, the sales of petroleum coke from local refineries were average, and refinery prices continued to decline. The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for purchasing petroleum coke was also average: aluminum using carbon enterprises mainly maintained their rigid demand for petroleum coke, while the anode material market primarily purchased petroleum coke on a need basis. Graphite electrode enterprises, with low production enthusiasm, had limited purchases of petroleum coke. In the first half of August, the trading of petroleum coke at ports was active, and port inventory continued to decrease, which was beneficial for the trading of Formosa Coke as silicon enterprises in the southwest gradually resumed operations. In late August, the sales of petroleum coke at ports were still acceptable, and the amount of spot goods at ports increased, leading to a slight decrease in coke prices.

On the demand side: In August, the resumption of production at silicon enterprises in Xinjiang drove a slight increase in overall operating rates. Among mainstream regions, the Northwest region led with an operating rate of around 76%, followed by Yunnan, where operations remained steady at approximately 68%. Meanwhile, metal silicon plants in Xinjiang and Sichuan maintained activity levels between 56% and 57%. Meanwhile, the silicon industry continues to show strong demand for petroleum coke.

In August, the price of medium-sulfur calcined coke in China rose, with most companies having low inventory levels, and there was a strong willingness to push for higher prices in new orders.

Electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is 44.035 million tons (approaching the industry's upper limit), with limited short-term increases; some companies are reducing production (Weiqiao in Shandong reduced by 500,000 tons, and Chinalco in Qinghai reduced by 400,000 tons) while others are resuming production (Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum in Baise, Guangxi plans to resume an additional 50,000 tons of production this year). The downstream aluminum carbon market is mainly driven by the rigid demand for petroleum coke.

Market Forecast: Currently, robust downstream demand for petroleum coke is supporting the market. Additionally, the upcoming price hike in pre-baked anodes—another key downstream application—is boosting market sentiment. As a result, petroleum coke prices are expected to see a slight increase in the near term.