Supply and Demand in Delicate Balance, Acrylonitrile Market Remains Stagnant in August in China

September 1st News

August has ended, and by the end of the month, the market price of acrylonitrile in China had been fluctuating between 7,800 and 8,200 CNY per ton for three months. Overall, the acrylonitrile industry in China still showed a weak balance this month, with manageable inventory levels, which kept the market price within a range.

Within the month, both supply and demand showed growth. The acrylonitrile and downstream ABS industries mainly focused on capacity expansion, while the downstream acrylic fiber industry maintained a high level of operation. By the end of the month, one line of Jilin Petrochemical's new 260,000-ton facility had achieved stable production, bringing China's total effective acrylonitrile capacity to 5,319,000 tons per year; Shandong Yike's second 75,000-ton-per-year ABS production line also achieved stable production, adjusting the base ABS capacity to 10,230,000 tons.

Meanwhile, due to maintenance at the acrylonitrile plant and proactive production cuts, supply increases have been kept in check—but the supply-demand gap initially widened before eventually narrowing. Currently, Daqing Petrochemical has recently shut down operations, while units in Fushun and Tianchen remain offline. Meanwhile, facilities such as Yulong, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Quanzhou Petrochemical are operating at reduced capacity. However, Zhejiang Petrochemical has increased its plant load.

2025 China Acrylonitrile Monthly Supply and Demand Balance Comparison Chart (10,000 tons)

However, the current acrylonitrile industry capacity is still in excess. According to the current demand data, it is estimated that the total consumption and export volume in China for the whole year of 2025 may still be less than 4 million tons. This means that to maintain a weak balance in the acrylonitrile market, there still needs to be an active control on the supply side, with the industry's capacity utilization rate needing to be maintained at around or slightly below 75%.

2024-2025 China Acrylonitrile Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate and Price Trend Comparison Chart (CNY/ton)

Additionally, prolonged production losses have already forced the acrylonitrile plants to proactively cut back on output. Since the beginning of 2025, major East China producers such as Sinopec’s Sulbo and Shanghai SECCO have largely maintained low-load operations, running at around 50% to 70% capacity. Meanwhile, although Zhenhai Refining & Chemical has emerged as a new production facility, it has enjoyed relatively stable production and sales so far, thanks to its advantageous geographic location in a key consumption hub. In contrast, Sinochem Quanzhou has already reduced its operations by half.

Next month's forecast suggests that due to the ongoing plant maintenance in the northern part of China, there is no significant increase in supply planned for the eastern region. At the same time, downstream consumption is expected to improve as it enters the traditional peak season. Therefore, the supply-demand gap is expected to narrow further. However, since there is room for subjective adjustment in the supply side, uncertainties still exist. Overall, it is anticipated that the acrylonitrile industry in China will remain in a weak balance, and the market's stalemate situation will continue.