Narrow Increase in Lithium Carbonate Prices During Peak Demand Season for Stockpiling

September 23, News

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, lithium carbonate prices have shown a narrow upward trend. As of September 23, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at 73,266 CNY per ton, up 2.21% from the previous week (September 16) but down 12.5% compared to the same period last month and 5.83% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,766 CNY per ton, marking a 2.5% increase from the prior week (September 16), yet still down 12.66% month-on-month and 4.82% year-on-year.

Demand Outpacing Supply, Leading to a Temporary Tight Balance

Demand-side peak season characteristics are prominent

New Energy Vehicles: In August, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles grew by 27.4% and 26.8% year-on-year, respectively. From January to August, cumulative sales reached 9.62 million units, representing a robust 36.7% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, battery manufacturers have begun stocking up, boosting the rebound in demand for lithium carbonate used in power batteries.

Energy Storage Sector: The National Energy Administration's "Energy Storage Action Plan" has spurred some provinces and cities to rush installations, further boosting short-term demand. On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guidelines for High-Quality Development of Industrial Parks," which proposed enhancing the development and utilization of new energy infrastructure such as rooftop photovoltaics, distributed wind power, diversified energy storage, and charging piles.

Supply-Side Disruptions Coexist with Incremental Growth

Policy restrictions: Eight lithium mica mines in Jiangxi Province are required to complete the adjustment of mining categories (which must be done by September 30), and the Jiaxiaowo mine under CATL, which has been suspended since August, has further intensified market expectations of supply contraction.

Capacity Release: Lithium extraction from spodumene continues to grow, partially offsetting the decline in lithium mica production. In September, China’s weekly output of lithium carbonate edged up slightly by 544 tons, reaching 19,963 tons.

Policy Impact: Short-term Price Support, Long-term Industry Regulation

Supply-side policy disruptions have made the change in lithium mining permits in Jiangxi Province a recent market focus. If most mines cannot complete the procedures by September 30, the supply gap may widen, boosting prices in the short term.

According to authoritative information, relevant departments are preparing to release the "Regulations on the Lithium Carbonate Industry," aiming to set entry barriers from multiple dimensions such as energy consumption, environmental protection, and technical indicators, and to forcibly eliminate outdated production capacities. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in China is less than 65%, with a large amount of low-cost speculative production capacity flooding the market, and this policy will directly address the pain points of the industry.

A lithium carbonate data analyst notes that lithium carbonate prices have seen a narrow upward trend recently, driven by seasonal demand for inventory preparation and policy-related disruptions on the supply side. The key turning point will be the implementation of Jiangxi's lithium mining policies on September 30. If supply constraints exceed expectations, prices could continue to rise; otherwise, without additional upward momentum, prices are likely to remain range-bound near the cost level—though market dynamics will ultimately determine the outcome.