July 31st News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices in China showed an overall downward trend this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 667 CNY/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 643 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.6%, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.32% compared to last year. On July 30, the Chlor-Alkali Index in China was 725 points, down 2 points from the previous day, down 65.93% from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and up 2.55% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The period refers to the time from December 1, 2011, to the present.)
2. Market Analysis
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices overall showed a downward trend this month. In Shandong, the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion membrane caustic soda is around 620-670 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan around 830-860 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market quotation for 32% ion membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 1630-1800 CNY/ton. In July, the liquid caustic soda markets across China saw more declines than increases. Although there was an expectation of supply contraction due to plant maintenance in East China this month, the traditional off-season for downstream demand made it difficult to see a significant increase in demand. The alumina prices were weak, and most buyers were in a wait-and-see mood. Some aluminum plants replenished their inventory based on their own inventory levels, while alumina plants were not very active in spot transactions, and their quotations were relatively cautious. The non-aluminum downstream demand continued to be sluggish, with most purchases made on a need basis, and no improvement was seen, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been trending weakly. Downstream alumina buyers are generally taking deliveries at a moderate pace, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the market’s wait-and-see attitude continues to heat up. Although some non-aluminum downstream industries completed maintenance in August, the expected increase in output is limited. Overall, given the ongoing supply-demand dynamics, caustic soda prices are likely to stabilize and trade sideways, with the specific trend depending on downstream market demand.
