Narrow Fluctuations in Methanol Market Conditions

September 28, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 22 to 28 (as of 3:00 PM), methanol prices at East China ports rose slightly from 2,255 CNY/ton to around 2,265 CNY/ton, marking a price increase of 0.44% over the period—up 0.85% compared to the previous week, yet down 8.61% year-on-year.

Due to factors such as weather conditions, unloading operations have been slowed, leading to a gradual reduction in port methanol inventories. However, import volumes remain high recently, keeping overall inventory levels elevated. Meanwhile, downstream buyers are taking advantage of lower prices to replenish their stocks, which continues to weigh on market sentiment. As a result, the broader market remains relatively weak, with prices fluctuating narrowly over the period.

As of the close on September 28, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed higher. The most active methanol contract, 2601, opened at 2,360 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,367 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2,347 CNY/ton. It ultimately settled at 2,364 CNY/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous trading day’s settlement—representing a price increase of 0.51%. Trading volume stood at 170,414 contracts, while open interest totaled 877,555 contracts, with a daily increase in positions of -7,577.

Current Comparison Chart for Methanol:

As of September 28, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China is as follows:

Cost Perspective: Downstream pre-holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a gradual stabilization of coal prices and providing relatively stable cost support. However, methanol costs are being influenced by mixed factors—both positive and negative.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

On the demand side, acetic acid: the starting bid price of acetic acid from the northwest factories increased by 40 CNY per ton, and the enterprises are experiencing smooth sales. Formaldehyde: the formaldehyde market is mixed with both increases and decreases. Dimethyl ether: the dimethyl ether market is operating steadily. Most downstream products are affected by the methanol prices, leading to a mixed impact on the demand for methanol.

Comparison Chart of Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Products) Price Trends:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply Side: Inner Mongolia Jiuding and Hebi Coal Chemical plants are undergoing maintenance; Jinmei Huayu and Xinjiang Xinye facilities have reduced production; meanwhile, Shenhua Xinjiang, Guizhou Tianfu, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, and Ningxia Baofeng plants have resumed operations. Overall, the recovery in supply exceeds the losses, leading to an increase in capacity utilization rates. This situation creates a generally positive influence on methanol supply conditions.

On the international front, as of the close on September 25, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $325.5–$326.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market settled at 100–101 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market ended at €280.5–€281.5 per ton, down by €2 per ton.

The market forecast suggests that as the pre-holiday stocking comes to an end, traditional downstream demand is starting to weaken. However, the high operating rates of olefin plants in inland areas continue to support prices. Methanol analysts predict that the Chinese methanol spot market will remain in a state of consolidation and observation.[1]