Restocking Demand Boosts, Short-term Ethylene Glycol Price Decline Narrows

September 28, News

September Ethylene Glycol Price Trend Overview

In September, the price of ethylene glycol in China eased. According to the data, as of September 28, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4390 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the average price of 4485 CNY/ton on September 1.

Regarding port ethylene glycol, on September 26, 2025, the basis of the spot contract for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) was weak. The intraday basis trading range for contracts before September 30 was +60 to +73. After the market closed, the basis quote for contracts before September 30 was +63, and the basis quote for October lower contracts was +69 to +71. The intraday trading range for this week's contract was 4285-4312 CNY/ton. Today (September 28), some traders offered a fixed price of 4307 CNY/ton.

The spot price for Chinese coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax-inclusive, self-pickup) for a full truckload is 3930-4150 CNY/ton.

Regarding overseas ethylene glycol, as of September 24, recent vessel cargoes were negotiated and finalized around $510 per ton.

Fundamental Overview

Supply Increases, Inventory Rises

Port inventory forecast: Next week, the total planned arrivals of ethylene glycol at ports in East China are expected to reach 228,000 tons—relatively high compared to recent weeks. During the National Day holiday, several large vessels from Canada and Saudi Arabia are set to arrive simultaneously, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation at the receiving ports. As of September 26, ethylene glycol inventories at East China ports stood at around 430,000 tons, marking an increase of approximately 30,000 tons from the previous week. Specifically, Zhangjiagang holds 200,000 tons, Taicang has 90,000 tons, Jiangyin accounts for 64,000 tons, Ningbo holds 30,000 tons, Changshu and Nantong together account for 31,000 tons, and Changzhou is at 15,000 tons.

Supply-side changes: A plant in Jiangsu plans to restart in early October, and during the holiday, the coproduction facilities will adjust EO/EG products. Domestic supply from China is expected to increase, and MEG is likely to enter an inventory accumulation cycle in October.

Downstream demand is performing well

Downstream performance: China's polyester capacity is 88,940,000 tons (effective from September 1, 2025). This week, the production and sales of polyester have improved, with POY inventory reduced to two weeks, but the demand is mostly speculative feedback from end-users.

Market Outlook

As the holiday approaches, there is a strong demand for pre-holiday inventory preparation, and downstream polyester factories have a need to replenish their stocks at lower levels; however, with the increase in port inventory and the news of new facilities commissioning, the price of ethylene glycol is being suppressed; recently, under the boost of pre-holiday restocking demand, the downward space for the price of ethylene glycol is expected to narrow.