Why Did Ethylene Glycol Prices Rebound Again at the End of April? Are Prices Likely to Remain Strong in May?

April 29 news

At the end of April, the ethylene glycol price in China showed a strong fluctuation.

In late April 2026, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded. According to data, as of April 29, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 5,138.33 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.15% from the average price of 5,030 CNY/ton on April 21; and an increase of 0.35% from the average price of 5,120.33 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

Port MEG (ethylene glycol) spot contract (minimum 500 tons) basis quotations, as of the 29th, fluctuated with the market. This week, the intra-day basis quotation for the spot contract ranged from +95 to +110. By the close, the basis quotation for this week's contract (before April 30) was +105 to +115 (Changjiang International Warehouse); the basis quotation for the May lower half contract (before May 25) was +125. The market basis strengthened slightly during the day.

The spot price of coal-to-polyester grade monoethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for factory pickup is 4520-4680 CNY/ton.

Regarding ethylene glycol on the international market, as of April 28, the negotiated and settled landed prices for Chinese shipments were around USD 605 per ton, while those for Southeast Asian shipments were around USD 700 per ton.

April 2026: Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory:

On April 27, 2026, the total spot inventory of monoethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 793,000 tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the total spot inventory of 953,000 tons on March 30, 2026, in the main ports of East China.

Analysis of the Reasons for the Rebound in Ethylene Glycol Prices in Late April 2026 in China:

In late April 2026, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded, primarily due to four factors: the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East leading to a sharp reduction in imports, low operating rates of facilities in China, continuous destocking at ports, and high crude oil costs. Additionally, the marginal recovery of demand after the holiday and the push from speculative funds contributed to the price rebound and strengthening.

On the supply side, ethylene glycol import volumes have contracted. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, leading to delays in shipments from the Middle East. As a result, China’s ethylene glycol arrivals in April and May are expected to reach only 300,000 to 350,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of nearly 50%. Currently, 65% of China’s ethylene glycol imports come from the Middle East (with Saudi Arabia accounting for 55%), and the supply gap is rapidly widening. Ethylene glycol prices in neighboring countries are more competitive; in April, re-export volumes reached 100,000 tons, further reducing actual arrivals in China. On the Chinese supply side, ethylene glycol produced from crude oil remains under pressure due to high crude oil prices and persistent losses. As of late April, many units were still undergoing maintenance or operating at low capacity, keeping the operating rate hovering around 55%. Ethylene glycol produced from coal saw an operating rate of 61% following spring maintenance, but overall capacity release remains limited, and some plants still have scheduled maintenance plans. Overall, the operating rate remains relatively weak. The spot market in China is tight, with reduced spot availability and strong price-supporting intentions among traders.

On the cost side, high crude oil prices provide strong support, pushing the cost center for ethylene glycol production upward. Although coal-to-ethylene glycol enjoys a cost advantage, rising oil prices are driving up overall chemical product prices, thereby facilitating a recovery in industry valuations.

On the demand side, expectations for the peak season in May are heating up, prompting the market to anticipate an early recovery in demand and spurring speculative capital to enter the market and drive prices higher. After the holiday, orders for weaving and dyeing are gradually picking up, with stable underlying demand. Polyester inventories are declining, and as grey fabric stocks are depleted, manufacturers’ willingness to replenish inventories is increasing, leading to a faster pace of ethylene glycol procurement.

From a policy and sentiment perspective, China is strictly controlling the construction of new coal-to-ethylene glycol facilities and accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity. As a result, the cost advantage of coal-to-ethylene glycol has somewhat eased its restraining effect on upward price pressures. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, driving up the market’s “geopolitical premium” and fueling strong bullish sentiment among investors.

Future Market Forecast

The rebound in ethylene glycol prices at the end of April was due to supply contraction (the main factor) + cost support + marginal improvement in demand + sentiment-driven increases, with the supply and demand balance shifting from loose to tight. If the conflict in the Middle East does not ease, imports remain low, and destocking continues in May, ethylene glycol prices are likely to show a strong and volatile trend.