China Fuel Oil 180CST Market Trends Remain Stable Through Late September

September 30 update

According to the commodity analysis system, fuel oil 180CST prices in the East China region remained mostly stable at the end of September. As of September 30, the average price of Chinese fuel oil 180CST was 5,475.00 CNY per ton (all taxes included), unchanged from the price on September 28.

It is understood that at the end of the month, the decline in international crude oil prices provided limited support to China's marine fuel market. The price of marine fuel blending raw materials in China remained stable, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing; the freight rates in the downstream coastal shipping market dropped, and shipowners' pre-holiday refueling was basically over. In addition, during the dual holidays, some logistics were obstructed, and shipowners' refueling orders were mainly small batches for essential needs. According to reports, as of September 30, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil price in Dalian by Sinopec was 5550 CNY/ton, and the self-pickup low-sulfur 120cst fuel oil price was 5650 CNY/ton; in Shanghai, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil price was 5350 CNY/ton, and the self-pickup low-sulfur 120cst fuel oil price was 5450 CNY/ton.

Recent crude oil price declines are mainly due to OPEC+ planning to continue increasing production in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq, leading to a drop in international oil prices.

On the international fuel oil front, Singapore's Enterprise Singapore (ESG) reported that, as of the week ending September 24, Singapore's fuel oil inventories fell by 2.606 million barrels to a 13-week low of 22.804 million barrels. Meanwhile, Singapore's middle distillate stocks declined by 240,000 barrels, reaching a 4-week low of 9.479 million barrels. In contrast, Singapore's light distillate inventories rose by 250,000 barrels, climbing to a 5-week high of 14.616 million barrels.

Market Forecast: Currently, shipping rates in the downstream market are declining, leading to a drop in cargo demand. As a result, shipowners are opting for small, immediate fueling needs rather than bulk orders. Meanwhile, the spot price for 180cst low-sulfur fuel oil available for self-collection stands at RMB 5,300–5,550 per ton, while the 120cst version is quoted at RMB 5,400–5,650 per ton. It is expected that the 180CST fuel oil market may see a slight upward trend after the holiday period.