September 4th News
According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE in China first fell and then rose from 7,200 CNY/ton to 7,210 CNY/ton. The price increase within the period was 0.15%, with the maximum fluctuation being 9.98%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.655%.
After entering August, the Chinese MTBE market showed an upward trend with fluctuations, especially rising further in the latter part of the month. Specifically, in the first half of the month, the international crude oil market performed poorly, and manufacturers such as Huizhou Yuxin, Dongying Shenchí, and Dongfang Hongye successively resumed operations, leading to a continuous increase in resource supply. At the same time, the Chinese gasoline market was relatively weak, so manufacturers offered discounts to boost sales. Starting from the latter part of the month, the market began to rise with fluctuations. The international crude oil prices also rose with fluctuations, and at the same time, Lihuayi's traditional and isomerization plants underwent maintenance, and some major manufacturers temporarily stopped releasing goods, tightening the available resources in the market. Meanwhile, the gasoline market showed strong performance, with a large number of ship orders being delivered, and traders' enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline components significantly increased. The MTBE market thus showed an upward trend with fluctuations, with only a slight decline at the end of the month.
MTBE China production price average trend chart:
Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international crude oil prices generally rose in August, with the monthly average price increasing compared to July. In the first half of the month, U.S.-Iran negotiations hit an impasse, and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, intensifying market concerns about the risk of supply disruptions and driving up international oil prices. In the middle of the month, the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired without renewal, and the U.S. further escalated its sanctions against Iran, making it increasingly unlikely that the strait would reopen to navigation, thus continuing to push up oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums. In the latter half of the month, mediators continued to encourage both the U.S. and Iran to resume negotiations, raising expectations for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and easing geopolitical and supply concerns, which led to a slight decline in international oil prices.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, regarding gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and market participants remain cautious. As a result, they are still hesitant to make fresh purchases of related gasoline components. Given that ship orders for delivery in August remain relatively high, this is expected to provide support to the MTBE market, particularly during the first half of the month. MTBE export volumes in August may decline compared to July, as China’s need to absorb domestic resources gradually increases. Overall, the demand side for MTBE is influenced by relatively favorable factors.
Supply side: During the month, the new materials of BenGuo, traditional and isomerization units of Lihuayi, and the Baofeng plant in Ningxia were shut down, while Dongying Shenchí, Dongfang Hongye, the old isobutane dehydrogenation unit of Shouguang Dexin, and Shenghong Refining resumed operations. Overall, resource supply increased. The supply of MTBE was affected by negative factors.
As of September 4, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected manufacturers:
| Enterprise | Unit | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Chengtai Chemical | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit shut down | 7,400 CNY/ton |
| Shida Shenghua | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit operating steadily, normal shipments | 7,450 CNY/ton |
| Shenchi Chemical | 400,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation plant co-producing 350,000 tons of MTBE | 7,383 CNY/ton |
| Lihua Yi | Isomerization and isobutane dehydrogenation units operating normally | 7,400 CNY/ton |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 350,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit operating steadily, producing 1,000 tons per day | 7,500 CNY/ton |
As of the close on September 3, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $12.89 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $1,032.12 to $1,034.12 per ton. In the European MTBE market, closing prices rose by $3.75 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,580.24 to $1,580.74 per ton. In the U.S. MTBE market, closing prices fell by $33.43 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $1,186.06 to $1,186.41 per ton (334.89 to 334.99 cents per gallon).
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | FOB Singapore | $1,032.12–$1,034.12 per ton | $12.89 per ton |
| Europe | FOB ARA | $1,580.24–$1,580.74 per ton | $3.75 per ton |
| United States | FOB Gulf | $1,186.06–$1,186.41 per ton | -$33.43 per ton |
Market Forecast: Several previously idled manufacturers, including Haiteweiye, Huayi Chemical, Zhonghao Jian, Qixiang Tengda, Ningxia Baofeng, and Lihua Yi, are planning to resume operations, and resource supply is expected to increase. On the gasoline terminal demand side, international crude oil prices are likely to trend weaker, and downstream players remain cautious in their purchasing behavior. After the summer peak season, gasoline consumption is expected to stabilize relatively. As a result, industry players are likely to pursue rigid demand procurement of relevant gasoline components. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market will mainly experience wide-range consolidation.
