July 30th News
According to the commodity analysis system, the marine fuel market in East China showed an upward trend in July. As of July 29, the average price of Chinese fuel oil 180CST was 6,262.50 CNY per ton, an increase of 3.73% from 6,073.50 CNY per ton on July 1.
In July, the price of 180CST fuel oil in China first rose and then fell: In the early part of July, the decline in international crude oil prices negatively impacted the Chinese marine fuel market. The prices of blending materials for Chinese marine fuels decreased, and with the decline in terminal shipping prices, shipowners mainly replenished fuel based on their immediate needs, leading to a downturn in the Chinese marine fuel market. In the mid-to-late part of the month, the rise in international crude oil prices supported the Chinese marine fuel market. The prices of blending materials in China increased, and with tight supplies of taxed resources in China, the Chinese marine fuel market saw an upward trend. According to reports, as of July 29, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil quotes were between 6,000-6,400 CNY/ton, and the self-pickup low-sulfur 120cst fuel oil quotes were between 6,100-6,500 CNY/ton.
In July, international crude oil prices experienced a volatile ride—first oscillating upward, then surging sharply in the latter half of the month only to quickly reverse and fall back. At the beginning of the month, Brent crude oil traded in a weak, consolidating range, reflecting a market logic of loose supply and demand. Starting from mid-month, as U.S.-Iran tensions continued to escalate, shipping volumes through the two major crude oil transportation routes—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—plummeted dramatically. Geopolitical risk premiums rose rapidly, driving oil prices higher. However, after reaching their peak, the market gradually digested the heightened conflict expectations. Coupled with weak global crude oil terminal demand and the IEA’s downward revision of the full-year crude oil demand growth rate, the OPEC+ production increases combined with stable U.S. shale oil production created a supply-demand offset, causing oil prices to plunge sharply at the end of the month.
Regarding international fuel oil, according to Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week ending July 22, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 3.45 million barrels, reaching a three-week high of 19.46 million barrels; meanwhile, Singapore’s middle distillate inventories fell by 5.93 million barrels, hitting a three-week low of 8.715 million barrels.
Market Forecast: Recently, the international crude oil market has been volatile, and the wait-and-see sentiment in China’s marine fuel market has intensified. Currently, China’s supply of taxed marine fuels is relatively tight. In the ship-fueling market, terminal demand remains weak, and shipowners’ immediate need for refueling is mainly driven by small, urgent orders. It is expected that Chinese marine fuel oil prices will likely consolidate in the near term.
