Narrow and Weak Operation of the Coke Market in September

September 30 update

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: On September 28, 2025, the average price was 1043 CNY per ton. In September 2025, the Chinese coke market showed a fluctuating trend of first declining then rising, with price fluctuations driven by multiple factors including supply and demand adjustments, policy impacts, and cost support.

II. Market Analysis

In terms of price: On September 30, the metallurgical coke prices in the Tangshan market remained stable. The current mainstream transaction prices are 1,680 CNY/ton for rammed first-grade dry quenched coke and 1,730 CNY/ton for top-charged first-grade dry quenched coke, all factory prices including tax. On September 30, the metallurgical coke prices in the Tianjin Port market also remained stable, with port first-class coke quoted at 1,470 CNY/ton and first-grade coke at 1,570 CNY/ton. After mid-September, the rise in coking coal costs pushed up the coke prices, and coke enterprises in Xingtai and Yuncheng led the increase by 50-85 CNY/ton, raising the dry quenched coke quotes to 1,565 CNY/ton.

Supply Side: Coking enterprises maintain stable production, but environmental restrictions on output are being tightened on a temporary basis, resulting in Shanxi's total coke production increasing slightly by 0.4% year-on-year.

Demand side: Steel mills' daily pig iron production remains at a high level of 2.3 million tons, but the weakening of finished steel prices has led to a slowdown in the purchasing pace.

Cost Side: Rebounding coking coal prices (low-sulfur lean coking coal rises to 1,420 CNY/ton) are squeezing coking profits, pushing some companies back into losses and prompting a hike in coke prices.

III. Market Forecast

The coke analyst believes: In the fourth quarter, the coal and coke market in China may be affected by disturbances such as coal mine inspections and pressure from steel exports, leading to intensified price competition. However, a temporary mismatch between supply and demand might support a relatively strong and fluctuating coke market.