Narrow Range Fluctuation Trend of Lithium Carbonate After the Holiday

October 15, news

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, Chinese lithium carbonate has shown a narrow fluctuation trend. As of October 15, the spot benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China was 73,016 CNY/ton, up 1.95% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year; the spot benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate in China was 71,166 CNY/ton, up 1.93% month-on-month and down 9.69% year-on-year.

Supply Side: Pressure and Support Coexist

The supply side as a whole presents a situation where pressure and support are intertwined. On one hand, supply pressure still exists: China's lithium carbonate production continues to grow, with the estimated output for October possibly exceeding 90,000 tons, and the continuously increasing production exerts some downward pressure on market prices.

On the other hand, the Chilean customs data shows that in September 2025, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 15,918 tons, a decrease of 5.83% month-over-month and 12.74% year-over-year. Of this, 11,101 tons were exported to China, a decrease of 14.5% month-over-month and 33.1% year-over-year, which to some extent reduces the market supply increment.

Demand Side: Resilience Interwoven with Underlying Concerns

On the demand side, there is a mix of strong support and underlying concerns. In the power battery sector, demand remains resilient: as the new energy vehicle industry continues to grow, the penetration rate of NEVs is steadily increasing, driving up demand for power batteries—and in turn providing some support for lithium carbonate demand.

However, the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. have also increased uncertainty surrounding export orders for lithium carbonate and downstream products like energy storage batteries, further putting pressure on the demand side.

A lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current lithium carbonate market is characterized by a mix of negative and positive factors. As a result, prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range around current levels—though further attention will still be needed to monitor shifts in market supply and demand.