Warehouse Receipt Cancellation Fuels Market Sentiment, Driving Lithium Carbonate Prices Higher

October 21, News

According to the commodity market analysis system: Lithium carbonate has recently ended its volatile trend and shown a rebound. On October 21, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,016 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.74% compared to the same period last week (October 14), a sequential increase of 2.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%. The benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 73,166 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the same period last week (October 14), a sequential increase of 2.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%.

Futures market sentiment boosted

Last week (Oct. 13–17), lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts dropped from 42,669 contracts to 30,686 contracts, representing a reduction of 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate in inventory. This reflects strong spot market demand and indicates that downstream players are running low on stockpiles.

Demand Surge: Dual Drive of New Energy and Energy Storage in China

New energy vehicle demand exceeds expectations: According to the China Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.5 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 22%, setting a new record for monthly sales. The strong terminal demand has directly affected the upstream supply chain. Leading battery companies such as CATL and BYD have extended their order delivery cycles to 45 days, with production rates in September maintained above 95%. The output of cathode material factories has continued to rise month-over-month, prompting a concentrated release of lithium carbonate procurement demand.

The demand in the energy storage sector has surged: According to the production data of Chinese battery companies in October, the total output of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries reached 186GWh, a month-on-month increase of 22.4%. Among these, the production proportion of energy storage cells was as high as 40.3%, with leading enterprises operating their production lines at full capacity. At the policy level in China, the "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" clearly states that over 100,000,000 kilowatts of new installed capacity will be added in the next three years, further expanding the consumption space for lithium resources.

Continuous inventory reduction solidifies the price foundation in China

As of early October, China's total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,023 tons to 134,802 tons, with the continued destocking trend providing solid support for the spot price.

Lithium carbonate data analysts believe: Currently, lithium carbonate is in a short-term strong fluctuation under a tight balance, but the total inventory of 130,000 tons still suppresses the price increase, making it difficult to quickly break through the previous high. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and specific developments still need to be monitored for market changes.