Methanol market trends fluctuate downward in China

October 24, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 20 to 24 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese methanol market fell from 2,290 CNY/ton to around 2,238 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.27% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.28%. The Chinese methanol market trend has been fluctuating downward, with relatively weak downstream buying interest, which has suppressed the market price and led to a weaker performance.

As of the close on October 24, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2601 opened at 2,294 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,299 CNY/ton, a low of 2,266 CNY/ton, and closed at 2,272 CNY/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.18% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The volume was 603,000 lots, with an open interest of 1,080,950 lots, and an increase of 14,570 lots in open interest for the day.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of October 24, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Perspective: As winter stockpiling approaches, downstream sectors releasing some demand is providing strong support for coal prices—creating significant cost support. Meanwhile, methanol costs are benefiting from relatively positive factors.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand side, the news of external procurement of olefins has created a buzz, with traditional downstream sectors following up with low-price restocking, slightly shifting the market price center upwards. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is affected by negative factors in China.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Xindongheng and Guangju New Materials are undergoing plant maintenance; Sinopec Great Wall facility has reduced production; Shanxi Coking and Jinmei Huayu facilities have resumed operations. Overall, the volume of lost production is greater than the volume of restored production, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is influenced by positive factors.

On the international front, as of the close on October 23, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $324.5–$325.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5–90.5 cents per gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market ended at €268.5–€269.5 per ton, declining by €3 per ton.

Looking ahead, methanol supply is expected to remain ample, with traders clearly signaling their intention to offload inventory. Meanwhile, traditional downstream demand is set to decline. Methanol analysts predict that China’s spot methanol market will likely remain weak.