June 23 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 15 to 23 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market fell from 3,180 CNY/ton to around 2,777 CNY/ton. During this period, the price decreased by 12.66%, a drop of 12.20% month-over-month, but an increase of 2.12% year-over-year. The methanol market in Chinese ports has rapidly declined, with the main trading logic being the expectation of changes in the international situation, leading to an anticipated recovery in import volume, which in turn caused the rapid decline in prices. The price of methanol in inland China also significantly dropped. The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to expectations of increased future imports, coupled with weak spot fundamentals, causing a significant drop in prices. Downstream buyers, influenced by the mentality of buying on rising prices and not on falling ones, are cautiously observing, resulting in poor market transaction sentiment.
As of the close on June 23, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2609 opened at 2508 CNY/ton, with a highest price of 2559 CNY/ton, a lowest price of 2485 CNY/ton, and closed at 2493 CNY/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a price decrease of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,032,302, the open interest was 682,499, and the daily change in open interest was -10,063.
Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:
As of June 23, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:
| Region | Price |
|---|---|
| Shanxi Region | 2,500–2,510 CNY/ton |
| Anhui Region | 2,800–2,850 CNY/ton |
| Henan Region | 2,690–2,690 CNY/ton—cash payment upon factory pickup |
Cost Perspective: Market coal supply is tightening, and chemical coal prices remain relatively strong. Downstream demand is primarily driven by rigid procurement, providing solid cost support. The cost outlook for methanol is influenced by predominantly positive factors.
Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Demand Side: From the downstream perspective, only the prices of acetic acid from factories in Northwest China have increased, while the market for formaldehyde has weakened, and the dimethyl ether market is operating steadily. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Supply side, maintenance at Wangcang Hezhong plant; two units in Inner Mongolia briefly reduced production; one maintenance unit in Ningxia resumed operation, and two reduced production units in Inner Mongolia also resumed; overall, the loss in production exceeded the recovery, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is influenced by positive factors.
On the international markets, as of the close on June 22, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 539–541 per ton, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 154–156 cents per gallon, and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 509–511 per ton.
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | CFR Southeast Asia | USD 539–541 per ton | USD 0 per ton |
| Europe and the U.S. | U.S. Gulf | 154–156 cents per gallon | 0 cents per gallon |
| Europe | FOB Rotterdam | EUR 509–511 per ton | EUR 0 per ton |
For the future forecast, as the expected increase in imported shipments, the price of methanol in China has significantly dropped. However, the inventory of spot methanol from Chinese companies is relatively limited, and a considerable amount of supply has already been absorbed as long-term contracts approach their end. The domestic market is currently at a stalemate with minor fluctuations, and the downward trend has somewhat slowed. Overall, methanol analysts predict that the spot market for methanol in China will mainly focus on consolidation.
