Policy Buffer Period Triggers “Export Rush,” Lithium Carbonate Prices Surge 7.25% in a Single Day

January 12th, News

According to the commodity market analysis system: On January 12, the spot price of lithium carbonate set a daily price increase record of 7.25%. The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 150,000 CNY/ton, up 25% from the beginning of the year, 57% month-over-month, and 90% year-over-year; the benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 148,000 CNY/ton, up 26% from the beginning of the year, 57% month-over-month, and 94% year-over-year.

Short-term price fluctuation factors: Policy buffers drive demand growth

On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued a policy, clarifying that the export tax rebate for battery products will be adjusted in two phases: from April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; starting from January 1, 2027, the rebate will be completely abolished, covering core products such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, and all-vanadium redox flow batteries. This policy provides battery companies with a nearly three-month buffer period (January to March 2026), and the first phase adjustment (April to December) still retains a 6% rebate rate. The market has already formed a clear expectation of "rushing exports," which is driving a short-term increase in battery production, directly boosting the short-term demand for lithium carbonate, and is expected to weaken the traditional off-season (January-February) demand weakness.

Long-term price fundamentals remain the dominant factor.

1. Supply-side constraints: The current operating rate of lithium salt plants in China is already close to 90%, and new smelting capacity is in the ramp-up phase. However, due to high lithium ore prices, insufficient contract manufacturing capacity, and maintenance at some companies, the supply in January 2026 is likely to remain flat month-over-month, with limited short-term supply growth.

2. Dynamic Inventory Balance: Although lithium carbonate inventories have slightly accumulated recently, the scale remains limited. Moreover, downstream companies currently face insufficient raw material inventories and thus have a strong need to replenish their stocks. If future demand for export surges beyond expectations, inventories could once again enter a destocking phase, further reinforcing upward price momentum.

3. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows: The correlation between the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate is as high as 0.99, indicating that speculative demand for funds has a significant impact on short-term prices. The current market has a clear bullish outlook on lithium prices in the medium to long term, with the main contract's open interest remaining at high levels.

4. Demand Remains Strong: The fundamental logic of demand growth for energy storage and new energy vehicles has not changed, providing core support for lithium prices. The advancement of China's power market reform, robust demand for conventional energy storage overseas, and the expansion of global data center construction will continue to drive the growth of energy storage battery orders, thereby increasing the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and providing a stable increase in lithium carbonate consumption.

Lithium carbonate data analysts believe: The adjustment of the battery export tax rebate policy will have an impact on lithium carbonate prices. The rush to export demand triggered by the policy buffer period, combined with low inventory levels, will push lithium carbonate prices to continue to be strong. The 150,000 CNY/ton level may become a short-term support. In the medium to long term, the cost pressure brought about by the cancellation of the tax rebate will suppress some demand, but the rigid growth in demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles, along with the tight supply-demand balance in the industry, will still provide core support for lithium prices, limiting the room for significant price declines.