Methanol Market Shows Weak and Fluctuating Trends in China

August 22, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 15 to 22 (up to 3:00 PM), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of China fell from 2,330 CNY/ton to around 2,295 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 1.47% during the period, down 6.29% month-over-month, and down 7.49% year-over-year. With the recovery of methanol plants in China, the support from the domestic market is slightly insufficient, and the demand for high-priced goods is weak.

As of the close on August 22, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2601 opened at 2,421 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2,425 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2,398 CNY/ton. It closed at 2,405 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, representing a 0.58% price decrease. The trading volume was 377,483 lots, with an open interest of 698,146 lots, an increase of 17,912 lots from the previous day.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of August 22, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost aspect, the digestion rate of coal inventory in China has slowed down, and the demand outlook is currently unclear. Market prices are relatively strong, providing solid support on the cost side. The cost aspect for methanol is influenced by positive factors.

Coal/Steam Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side, Acetic Acid: The acetic acid market in China is showing a partially upward trend. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market in China is undergoing range-bound consolidation. The raw material, methanol, continues to weaken, with poor cost support. Dimethyl Ether: The dimethyl ether market in China remains stable. Due to the reduction in downstream types, market demand is difficult to receive strong support. Most downstream products are affected by the price of methanol, leading to mixed impacts on the demand for methanol.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Hebei Jinshi, Yunnan Jiehua, Guizhou Chitianhua, and Chongqing Wanlilai are undergoing plant maintenance; Shanxi Lubao and Hualu Hengsheng have resumed operations. Overall, the recovery volume exceeds the loss volume, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is affected by bearish factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on August 21, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5–$322.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market ended at 95–96 cents per gallon; meanwhile, the FOB Rotterdam European methanol market closed at €283.5–€284.5 per ton, up €8 per ton.

Looking ahead, market activity is expected to improve as olefins procurement continues to support trading volumes, though the sustainability of demand remains uncertain, potentially keeping prices in a volatile, consolidating range in the short term. Methanol analysts anticipate that China’s spot methanol market will likely remain in a consolidation phase.