Poor Demand Continues to Drive Down Butadiene Market

October 13, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the Chinese butadiene market has been fluctuating downward during this period. From October 1 to October 13, 2025, the price of butadiene in China dropped from 8,886.67 CNY/ton to 8,380 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.7%. During this period, the overall operation of the Chinese butadiene market was weak, with the factory prices of major refineries in China being widely reduced. The downstream demand was generally poor, and the synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The enthusiasm for entering the market was low, and the purchasing intentions were weak, leading to poor actual transaction performance. Lacking demand support, the butadiene market as a whole operated weakly. As of October 13, the delivered price in the Shandong market was between 8,500-8,600 CNY/ton.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 10, the settlement price for the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $58.90 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $62.73 per barrel.

During this cycle, crude oil prices initially surged before reversing downward. On one hand, geopolitical factors continue to play a significant role in shaping the oil market—tensions between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting measures, initially boosted oil prices. On the other hand, OPEC+ has already initiated a new round of production increases totaling 1.65 million barrels per day. Yet, the market remains concerned about the long-term risk of supply overhang. Meanwhile, the easing of tensions between Israel and Palestine, combined with weakening demand in the U.S., has further weighed on global economic growth and dampened expectations for energy demand, leading to a sharp decline in international oil prices.

Supply Side: Sinopec's sales companies are implementing a listed price of 8,800 CNY per ton for butadiene.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally; it has been shut down for maintenance since August 14, with no plans for external sales, and is expected to restart in October.

Shenghong Refining's 200,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of 100 CNY/ton, setting the new price at 8,400 CNY/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton-per-year butadiene unit is running smoothly, with 336 tons sold externally at a floor price of 8,200 CNY per ton.

The 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit of Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical is operating normally, with a small amount of spot sales, the price has been reduced by 100 CNY/ton, and the current price is 8400 CNY/ton.

Demand Side: According to the commodity market analysis system, the styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market in East China is experiencing weak downward pressure. Currently, downstream end-users are placing orders based on their immediate needs. Post-holiday, the factory price of SBR has cumulatively dropped by 300 CNY/ton, leading to sluggish market transactions and a general weakening trend in seller quotes. As of October 13, mainstream prices for SBR from Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu ranged between 11,300 and 11,500 CNY/ton, while some private-brand suppliers were offering prices around 11,000 to 11,350 CNY/ton.

Forecast for the afternoon market: Recently, there has been no significant increase in downstream demand. Overall, the market expectation remains weak. Under the intention of rigid demand procurement, the spot market is generally operating weakly. The market lacks positive factors to boost it. Affected by the weak demand side, it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly exhibit a weak fluctuation trend in the short term. Close attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing demand.[1]