MIBK Market in 2025 Stabilizes First, Then Declines; Enters Supply and Demand Optimization Stage in 2026

January 1st News

In 2025, the MIBK industry, influenced by the continuous decline in the price of acetone, exhibited core characteristics of "price bottoming, structural differentiation, and reshaping of the landscape." China further solidified its dominant global position with dual advantages in production capacity and demand. In 2026, the market will bid farewell to the previous sluggish trend and enter a new phase of high-quality development characterized by "optimized supply and demand, price recovery, and leadership in high-end products." The competitive logic of the industry will shift from scale expansion to a focus on both quality and efficiency.

The annual fluctuation showed a trend of "stability first, then decline, reaching the bottom at the end of the year." At the beginning of the year, supported by the price of raw material acetone, the mainstream transaction price in the East China market was maintained at 9,500-9,600 CNY/ton; starting from April, as the price of acetone continued to decline (reaching a five-year low for the whole year) and supply pressure increased, prices began a continuous downward trend. The price decrease expanded in November-December, with the national average market price at the end of the year decreasing by 27.06% compared to the beginning of the year.

Market landscape: China's dominant position strengthens, and the structure of imports and exports optimizes.

Production Capacity and Supply: By 2025, China’s annual production capacity will reach 600,000 tons per year (accounting for 40% of the global share), concentrated in chemical parks in East China (Jiangsu and Shandong) and North China. Leading companies include Wanhua Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Shandong Jinling. Production capacity in Europe and the U.S. continues to shrink, with overseas giants holding less than 5% of the market share. Currently under construction and planned capacity exceeds 70,000 tons; Sinopec NanHua’s 45,000-ton and Wanhua Chemical’s 30,000-ton projects are underway, laying the foundation for an expansion of annual production capacity by 2026.

Demand Structure: Rubber antioxidants remain the largest consumption sector (accounting for over 40%), maintaining steady growth driven by the automotive and construction industries. Surface coatings account for nearly 50%, and although electronic-grade MIBK represents less than 8% of total demand, it boasts an average annual growth rate exceeding 12%, making it a key growth driver with high added value.

Import and Export Dynamics: Export volume has exceeded 80,000 tons, with major destinations being Southeast Asia and South American markets. Export quotations range from USD 1,100 to USD 1,300 per ton, 13% to 17.5% higher than the average Chinese price. Import volume has significantly declined to 9,200 tons (a year-on-year decrease of 71.43%), concentrated on high-purity electronic-grade products. Import dependency continues to fall, and the industry is gradually shifting toward becoming a net-exporting country.

2026 MIBK Market Development Outlook

(1) Price Outlook: The price center of gravity remains stable with upward momentum, and structural opportunities are becoming increasingly prominent.

Overall trend: The average price for the year is expected to rebound to between 8,500 and 9,000 CNY per ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.3% to 28.6%. ① Capacity utilization rate will rise to 75%-80%, easing the supply-demand imbalance; ② Environmental regulations will lead to the elimination of small- and medium-sized capacity, thereby reducing supply; ③ An increasing share of high-value-added products, such as electronic-grade materials, will help drive up the average price.

Acetone price fluctuations and the potential substitution of bio-based solvents could still trigger short-term price volatility. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the phenol-acetone market conditions and crude oil price trends.

(2) Capacity and Competition: Further Concentration, Dominated by Leading Players

Capacity expansion: Projects by Wanhua Chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and others have released approximately 100,000 tons of new capacity, with the total capacity expected to reach 700,000 tons.

(3) Demand Growth: Traditional Steady Increase + Emerging Breakthroughs, Clear Increment

Traditional fields: The coatings industry, driven by building renovation and automotive lightweighting, maintains a growth rate of 3-4%; rubber antioxidants continue to grow with the upgrade of the tire industry, remaining the core driving force. In 2024, the production of rubber antioxidants in China reached 451,600 tons, providing stable support for MIBK demand.

In 2026, the trade-in policy for consumer goods in China was intensified, releasing demand in terminal industries such as automobiles and home appliances, and indirectly boosting growth in downstream sectors of MIBK such as coatings and rubber antioxidants.

In 2025, the MIBK industry experienced a "price decline and structural reshaping," with China dominating global capacity and demand. Green transformation and high-end development became the core themes. Looking ahead to 2026, the industry will enter a new phase characterized by "stable capacity growth, differentiated demand, increased concentration, and price recovery."