Pre-holiday inventory buildup sluggish; PCs operate at low levels through late December

January 1st News

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, at the end of December, the PC market in China was operating weakly, with most grades at a low spot price. As of December 31, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 13,233.33 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year change rate of -5.15%.

Cause Analysis

Supply Side: By late December, the overall load of China's PC polymer enterprises saw a slight increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical had implemented a rotating maintenance plan for multiple production lines, with the second phase entering shutdown earlier than scheduled, although the first phase has resumed operation. Meanwhile, Sichuan Tianhua's production line has returned to operation, bringing the overall average industry operating rate back to nearly 78%, with weekly output exceeding 65,000 tons. Although polymer plants are collectively maintaining prices, the large supply base of basic grade materials is causing sales and production pressures to build up again. Overall, the support from the PC supply side for the PC market is moderate.

Regarding raw materials: As shown in the chart above, China’s bisphenol A market in December reversed its previous prolonged slump and began to stabilize and rise. Supported by multiple positive factors—including a tightening supply, marginal improvement in demand, and strengthened cost support—market prices steadily climbed from their low point at the beginning of the month. Traders showed strong willingness to hold prices, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market significantly warmed up. The supportive effect on PC costs has also improved.

Demand Side: Affected by the weakening profitability of end-user companies, downstream PC factories continue to operate at less-than-ideal capacity levels, and inventory management remains focused on buying at lower prices. Before the holiday period, total order volumes have declined, buyers are adopting a cautious approach, and there is little proactive stockpiling—instead, most purchases are made only as needed. E-commerce sales and overseas market responses to finished PC products have been mixed, prompting PC end-users to adopt a conservative production schedule. Overall, demand-side factors provide weak support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

At the end of December, the Chinese PC market was in a state of low-level consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market showed a positive trend throughout the month, but the cost value provided limited support to PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and there was limited news about future maintenance. Trading activity in the market was light, and it is expected that the PC market will face downward pressure in the short term.