October China Urea Market First Depressed Then Improved

October 27th News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 27, the reference average price of urea in the Chinese market was 1,625 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.23% from the reference average price of 1,621 CNY/ton on October 1.

2. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market price in China first fell and then rose. In the early part of the month, the urea market price in China declined. The futures market was not performing well, with ample market supply, and coupled with weak demand from downstream, the urea market trend weakened. By mid-month, the urea market price in China experienced a slight fluctuation and then increased. The futures market trend strengthened, and autumn procurement was nearing its end; the downstream sector followed up on the lower prices of urea, leading to a favorable trading atmosphere. In the latter part of the month, the urea market price in China continued to rise. The urea futures market trend strengthened, and the spot market followed the stronger trend of the futures market.

Market Conditions

As of October 27, the urea market prices in Shandong region are around 1570-1630 CNY/ton, in Hebei region 1570-1630 CNY/ton, in Henan region 1540-1600 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region around 1600 CNY/ton.

According to the weekly K-line chart from July 28, 2024, to October 20, 2025, the urea prices in China fluctuated. The largest price decrease in China's urea occurred in the week of October 6, with a decrease of -2.85%, and the largest price increase occurred in the week of October 20, with an increase of 1.27%.

III. Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the urea market has shown a strong upward trend. Currently, the trading atmosphere in the urea market is good, with increased inquiries from downstream buyers. However, as prices continue to rise, market caution is increasing. Urea inventories remain high, and industrial and agricultural demand is still insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, urea prices in China will mainly consolidate.