August 18th, news:
Based on the analysis of the average difference method, the PVC price difference indicator shows a clear upward signal. Considering the price positions at different cycles, the 1-year cycle is at a low level with limited downward space, while the 60-day cycle is at a medium to high level, and the short-term increase may be restricted by the range. Recently, the overall spot market in China has remained stable and firm, with small fluctuations in dealers' quotes and acceptable trading performance.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
Difference Type Today's Value (2026-08-17) Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) Direction of Change
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-17) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 16.4 | -3.8 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -4.5 | -8.3 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 17.65 | 17 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
All three differences have a positive change direction compared to the previous day, which is completely consistent and indicates a clear upward signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The price trend is clearly upward, reasons: the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences compared to yesterday are all positive, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the average difference method; at the same time, the spot market has shown firmness recently, with stable dealer quotes and acceptable transactions, further supporting the short-term upward trend.
IV. Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: low, with limited downside space
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low level
60-day cycle price position: at a medium-high level, short-term upward potential may be limited
Overall, the long-term risk of a decline in PVC prices is relatively low, but in the short term, within the high range of the 60-day cycle, there may be some constraints on price increases.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Spot Market Dynamics
Linyi Area: Recently, the PVC market has remained stable, with spot prices holding firm despite volatile futures. The mainstream quotation for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 is in the range of 4,480 to 4,530 CNY per ton, and transactions remain reasonably active.
Zibo area: The market is undergoing a narrow-range adjustment, with dealers’ quoted prices fluctuating within 20 yuan. The mainstream ex-factory price for calcium carbide method Grade 5 currently ranges from 4,430 to 4,480 CNY per ton.
Manufacturer updates: China Salt Inner Mongolia's PVC plant is operating at full capacity, with calcium carbide method SG-5 quoted at 4350 CNY/ton (bank acceptance). Shandong Xinfaxian's PVC plant is operating normally, with acetylene SG-5 ex-factory price at 4400 CNY/ton (cash).
Note: "China Salt" and "Shandong Xinfaxian" are direct translations of the company names. If these companies have official English names, those should be used instead.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
