After 5 consecutive months of price increases exceeding 60%, the current round of butadiene rubber price hikes in China may come to an end

April 15 news

According to the data, since November 2025, the price of polybutadiene rubber in the Chinese market has been rising for 5 consecutive months, reaching a peak of 18,140 CNY per ton on April 7, with a price increase of 62.69%. As of April 14, the price of polybutadiene rubber was 16,640 CNY per ton, a decrease of 8.27% from the highest point.

In November to December 2025, the butadiene rubber market supply slightly contracted with weak demand, and the price of butadiene rubber slightly increased at the bottom. On the supply side, the average operating load of high-cis butadiene rubber plants in China reached 71.44%, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance shutdowns; on the demand side, the downstream tire industry's all-steel tire production was around 63% and semi-steel tire production was around 71%, providing overall rigid support, but high-price transactions were weak.

Starting from January 2026, the price increase in the polybutadiene rubber market gradually expanded. The core driving factors are concentrated in three aspects: First, before the Chinese New Year, downstream sectors actively stockpiled, and after the holiday, tire production significantly increased, providing support for the demand for polybutadiene rubber; Second, at the end of February, the conflict in the Middle East led to high international crude oil prices, widening the supply gap of butadiene, and pushing up the production costs of polybutadiene rubber; Third, regular maintenance by enterprises, coupled with rising costs and losses, forced companies to reduce production, further intensifying the supply shortage.

From the spot butadiene rubber indicators, since mid-November 2025, the butadiene rubber price curve has successively crossed above the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, ushering in a 5-month upward cycle for butadiene rubber in China.

In early April, as news of the US-Iran negotiations came, the bullish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market gradually weakened, and the price of butadiene rubber fell from its high. However, due to some facilities still being under maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, the decline in butadiene rubber prices was limited by the tight supply situation in China.

Future Market Prediction

Looking ahead, from an industry perspective, although the Middle East conflict has eased somewhat in the short term, shipping issues remain unresolved. Moreover, the shortage of raw material butadiene persists, sustaining a tight supply situation. At the same time, downstream tire demand remains stable, providing continued support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the near term. In the medium to long term, as China’s newly commissioned butadiene capacity comes online, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. Coupled with the resumption of production at existing cis-1,4-polybutadiene plants and the commissioning of new capacity, prices may face downward pressure.

From the perspective of spot butadiene rubber indicators, since April 5th, the spot price curve of butadiene rubber has gradually fallen below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages. This suggests that the butadiene rubber market in China is likely to end its current upward cycle, and the market may be approaching a turning point in the cycle. Additionally, the five-level warning system for butadiene rubber prices indicates that the current price is at an overbought level for both 10 days and 1 year. In the short term, there may be a slight rebound in the price of butadiene rubber, but in the medium to long term, it is more likely that the butadiene rubber market in China will enter a downward cycle.