Styrene-butadiene rubber market prices surge and then fall

May 13th, news:

Since entering May, the price trend of China’s cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has shown a pattern of rising sharply followed by a decline. As of May 12, the mainstream quotation for BR9000 in the East China region had fallen to 15,650 CNY/ton, down 3.40% from the beginning-of-month level of 16,200 CNY/ton and down 4.16% from the month’s peak of 16,330 CNY/ton.

In early May, the market transactions were stagnant during the short holiday, and the butadiene rubber prices remained stable. After the holiday, with the release of supply-side capacity, prices gradually came under pressure and weakened, lacking sustained upward momentum, and overall showed a pattern of fluctuating downward. As of May 12, in the East China region, Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu butadiene prices were reported at 15,600 to 15,850 CNY per ton, with market transactions mainly driven by rigid demand procurement.

Supply-side expansion is one of the core factors leading to the weakening market trend. As the production profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered, some previously shut down or reduced load facilities have restarted, significantly increasing the industry's capacity utilization rate. As of May 7, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high-cis butadiene rubber industry reached 54.87%, a substantial increase from the end of April.

Costs continue to decline, further weakening the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of May 12, the price of butadiene stood at 12,400 CNY per ton, down 6.06% from the beginning-of-month level of 13,200 CNY per ton.

Weak demand has significantly weighed on market conditions. Since May, Chinese tire manufacturers have seen their operating rates decline due to factors including production halts during the May Day holiday, a reduction in export orders, and an accumulation of finished-product inventories. As of May 8, the operating rate for semi-steel tires among Chinese tire manufacturers had fallen to around 48%; in Shandong Province, the operating rate for all-steel tires stood at roughly 49%. Downstream factories show weak purchasing intentions, mostly limiting themselves to replenishing only essential inventory needs, which has failed to provide sufficient support for demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, further exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market.

From a technical perspective, the price has been continuously running below short-term moving averages such as the 10-day and 20-day, forming a bearish alignment, with significant short-term pressure. Only a 10-day oversold signal provides a weak technical rebound support for the market.

Future market forecast:

From a fundamental perspective, the short-term butadiene rubber market in China will still maintain a weak and volatile pattern. On the supply side, as production facilities continue to resume operations, the pressure of inventory accumulation is gradually increasing; on the demand side, the recovery of tire production rates is slow, with limited support from rigid demand; on the cost side, the price of butadiene is unlikely to see significant fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, from early April to early May 2026, the spread of butadiene rubber in China fell rapidly from a high of +950 CNY/ton, breaking below zero and reaching a low of -500 CNY/ton. It then oscillated and rebounded around -300 CNY/ton, indicating the end of the previous strong upward trend and the subsequent entry into a downward channel. The current decline has clearly slowed down, but the short-term moving average has not yet crossed above the long-term moving average, suggesting that the downward trend has not yet reversed.

Comprehensive Forecast: In the short term, prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels and stabilize after hitting bottom. Whether a rebound is possible will depend on: 1) the average price differential turning positive; and 2) either a strengthening in butadiene prices or a significant increase in tire production capacity utilization.