In April, the natural rubber market in China showed a slight increase

April 28th News

Since April 2026, the natural rubber market has seen a slight increase. As of April 27, the spot price of natural rubber in China was around 17,150 CNY per ton, an increase of 3.52% from 16,566 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month.

Affected by weather disturbances, China’s rubber tapping process has slowed down, resulting in an overall tight supply situation. In China’s major producing regions of Yunnan and Hainan, persistently high temperatures and scarce rainfall have led to temporary suspension of tapping in some areas of Yunnan, while in Hainan, latex release has been sluggish since tapping resumed. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also been impacted by drought, driving up raw-material latex prices. In Thailand, raw-material prices have reached new highs in recent years, providing strong cost support. According to ANRPC data, global natural rubber production in 2026 may contract slightly, with an annual supply-demand gap of approximately 400,000 tons, further intensifying expectations of a tight supply situation.

Downstream tire companies are experiencing minor fluctuations in operations, mainly supported by rigid demand. As of the week of April 24, the operating rate of semi-steel radial tires in Chinese tire companies was at 77%; the operating rate of all-steel radial tires in Shandong tire companies was at 69%. Demand provides some support for natural rubber, but tire inventories continue to rise, with inventory turnover days for all-steel radial tires approaching 40 days and for semi-steel radial tires exceeding 43 days. Companies are primarily purchasing based on rigid demand, and their willingness to replenish stocks is low.

Port inventory saw a slight increase: As of April 26, 2026, the combined inventory volume of natural rubber under bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area totaled 716,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period, representing a growth rate of 1.06%.

Future Market Prediction:

Overall, if the rainfall in the production areas in China continues to be low, the expectation of tighter supply will strengthen, and prices may test 17500 CNY/ton; if the drought eases and the production of new rubber accelerates, along with a slow inventory depletion, prices may fall back to around 16500 CNY/ton.

From the spot and moving average price chart, it can be seen that in mid-April, the natural rubber spot price curve fluctuated slightly around the 10-day and 20-day moving averages; by late April, the natural rubber spot price curve had gradually risen above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, and it is expected that natural rubber prices will remain high in the short term. Considering that the current spot price is in a state of overbuying compared to the past year, it is expected that there may be a risk of a phased decline in the natural rubber market in the medium term.