October Ethylene Glycol Prices Weaken Further; November Expected to Start Weak Before Gaining Strength

October 31 News

October Ethylene Glycol Prices Shift Lower

In October, the price of ethylene glycol continued to fall, with a downward shift in the price center. According to data, as of October 31, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4,220.83 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.74% from the average price of 4,385 CNY/ton on October 1.

In terms of ethylene glycol at Chinese ports, the basis for spot contracts of ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) at the ports was affected by the delivery factors at the Yangtze River International Warehouse, leading to a decrease in market trading sentiment. However, some companies showed a strong willingness to hold onto their current spot inventory, resulting in a near-strong and far-weak basis pattern. The basis trading range for this week's contracts was +84 to +88; by the close, the basis quotes for next week's contracts were +75 to +77, and the basis quotes for the November lower half contracts were +72 to +74.

The spot price for coal-to-polyester grade monoethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for a full truckload is 3770-3880 CNY/ton.

Regarding overseas ethylene glycol, as of October 31, recent vessel-load deals were struck around $487–$489 per ton.

Main reasons for the October ethylene glycol decline:

The decline in ethylene glycol prices in October 2025 was the result of multiple factors, mainly including increased supply, weak demand, and the macroeconomic environment, among others. Specifically:

Supply aspect

China's production capacity continues to expand: By 2025, China's total ethylene glycol production capacity will exceed 28,000,000 tons. The rapid growth of China's production capacity has led to a significant increase in supply, intensifying market competition. The pressure of oversupply is gradually becoming apparent, driving prices downward.

The facility utilization rate is high: China's ethylene glycol facility utilization rate remains elevated, with the country's overall load rising to 77% in October. Notably, the synthetic gas-based production capacity reached 81.89%, ensuring ample market supply.

Import volume increase: 650,000 tons of imports are expected in October, with the concentrated arrival of overseas supplies further increasing the supply pressure in the Chinese market.

On the Demand Side

Downstream demand in the polyester industry has grown less than expected: Ethylene glycol’s primary downstream sector is the polyester industry. Although polyester plants have resumed operations, overall demand growth remains limited. At the weaving end, orders are relatively weak, and inventories of products such as filament and staple fiber have begun to build up—resulting in subdued procurement needs for ethylene glycol among polyester manufacturers.

Downstream end-users are not eager to stockpile: These companies remain cautious about market expectations and show limited willingness to build up inventories. As a result, market demand struggles to fully materialize, failing to provide strong support for prices.

On the macroeconomic front and in terms of market sentiment: Uncertainty surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations has triggered market panic, dampening investor confidence in commodity markets. As a result, crude oil prices have weakened, putting overall pressure on the energy and chemical sectors—and dragging down ethylene glycol prices as well.

From a cost perspective: The ongoing decline in crude oil prices has significantly narrowed the losses from ethylene glycol production integrated with naphtha, weakening the cost-support effect and putting downward pressure on ethylene glycol prices.

November Ethylene Glycol Market Outlook /strong >

Yulong Petrochemical's new 800,000-ton facility was already commissioned in September, while Ningxia Changyi and other producers plan to begin trial operations in the fourth quarter. The addition of this new capacity is expected to put upward pressure on supply. Meanwhile, plant maintenance activities are limited, further exacerbating the overall supply tightness. Meanwhile, the polyester industry currently maintains a high operating rate, but as it approaches the end of the peak season, downstream textile demand is anticipated to weaken, leading to a cautiously bearish outlook for future demand.

Ethylene glycol port inventories in China remain relatively low. Currently, prices have fallen significantly but there are signs of stabilization recently. The market is watching for supportive factors, and ethylene glycol may see a short-term bottoming out and a rebound. In November, the price of ethylene glycol is likely to first weaken and then strengthen.