October China Soda Ash Market Trend Consolidates

November 3rd, according to reports

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of soda ash in October showed a slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1,182 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, it was around 1,186 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 4 CNY/ton, or a 0.34% increase.

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the soda ash market in October was in a consolidation phase. On the supply side, soda ash production facilities were operating at high levels, ensuring ample market supply, and companies faced significant pressure to move their inventory. On the demand side, downstream players adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with slow destocking of glass, leading to moderate actual consumption of soda ash. The fundamental situation continued to show strong supply and weak demand, with a bearish market sentiment. However, due to the rise in coal prices, the cost of soda ash increased, and Chinese soda ash enterprises mainly focused on stabilizing prices during the month.

As of October 31, 2025, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 1100-1400 CNY/ton, remaining stable compared to last month; in Central China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is around 1090-1200 CNY/ton, down 40-100 CNY/ton from last month; in North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is around 1170-1270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from last month.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system, glass prices experienced a significant decline this month, with the average market price dropping from 15.60 yuan/square meter to 13.85 yuan/square meter—a total price decrease of 11.22%. Throughout the month, glass production lines operated steadily, and the utilization rate remained relatively unchanged. However, demand remained sluggish, as downstream buyers showed little enthusiasm for purchasing. As a result, glass inventories continued to build up, leading to challenges in product distribution and putting downward pressure on glass market conditions.

Market Forecast: Soda ash production capacity continues to expand, leading to a bearish outlook on supply. Meanwhile, end-user industries are operating at only moderate levels, with weak downstream demand failing to provide sufficient support for soda ash prices. As a result, companies are facing significant pressure to offload their inventories. We expect soda ash prices to remain weak in November, though the exact trend will depend on how downstream sectors respond.