BDO Market Fluctuates within a Range in China

November 07, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 3 to 7, the BDO price in China was adjusted to 7,442 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.31% week-over-week and a decrease of 15.83% year-over-year. With some facilities restarting and reducing loads, the capacity utilization rate remains low. Suppliers continue to maintain a stable market mentality. Many downstream industries are operating at a loss and are maintaining contract follow-ups, with weak willingness to purchase on the spot. The supply and demand negotiations are ongoing, and the BDO market in China is consolidating within a narrow range.

Supply side, in terms of facilities, although one set of Inner Mongolia Sanwei's facilities and the first phase of Xinye's facilities have restarted, Great Wall Energy's one set of facilities remains in a catalyst replacement state, and Inner Mongolia Hua Heng and Meike's facilities are operating at reduced loads. The industry's capacity utilization rate remains at a relatively low level of around 50%, supporting suppliers' stable market mentality. There are potential positive factors that could influence the BDO supply side.

Statistics on the operational status of equipment at selected manufacturing enterprises:

Cost Perspective:
Regarding raw materials, calcium carbide—key input for BDO production—has seen increased furnace activity and a noticeable rise in supply, accelerating the downward trend in Chinese calcium carbide prices. As for methanol, the Chinese market has remained largely stable. As of 10:00 AM on November 7, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, stood at 2,097 CNY per ton. Both calcium carbide and methanol markets are trending weaker, creating negative cost factors that weigh heavily on BDO production costs.

Demand Side: Downstream industries, except for PBT plants experiencing a slight decline in operating rates, have seen stable operations across other sectors, with no significant changes in demand volume. However, certain downstream products such as PTMEG, GBL, NMP, and PU slurries have faced price declines due to factors like weak supply and demand conditions specific to these segments, further squeezing profit margins. As a result, under cost pressure, downstream industries are cautiously following up on contract orders but remain reluctant to purchase spot goods at higher prices, actively resisting premium pricing—thus putting downward pressure on raw material trends. Overall, the demand side for BDO continues to be weighed down by bearish factors.

Market Forecast: With the resumption of operations at facilities such as Guotai Xinhua and Great Wall Energy, supply has increased significantly, intensifying the cautious sentiment among market participants. Meanwhile, downstream industries like PTMEG and PBT are ramping up production, boosting their consumption of raw materials. However, many downstream sectors are facing cost pressures, leading to strong bargaining intentions among buyers entering the market. As both supply and demand continue to rise, the tug-of-war between them is expected to persist. BDO analysts predict that China’s BDO market will likely remain in a state of stalemate and consolidation.