High Supply and Weak Demand, PC Prices Fall in Mid-August in China

August 19, News

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in mid-August, the PC market in China mainly showed a downward trend, with spot prices for most grades slightly decreasing. As of August 19th, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 14,283.33 CNY/ton, with a price change rate of -0.35% compared to early August.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In mid-August, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises remained largely stable with minor adjustments. Only some facilities of Wanhua Chemical had scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Meanwhile, Sichuan Tianhua, Cangzhou Dahua, and Pingmei Shenma had restarted their operations collectively in the earlier period, and Shengtong Polyurethane is also planning to resume production soon. The industry's average operating rate remains high and stable at around 81%. The weekly output is close to 69,000 tons, with ample supply in the market. Inventory levels remain high and stagnant, and the abundant supply situation for PC remains unchanged. The pressure on polymerization plants to sell their products continues, and the supply side provides little support for PC prices.

Raw Materials Perspective: As shown in the chart above, Bisphenol A experienced volatile downward movements starting in mid-August. Meanwhile, upstream acetone prices remained stable while phenol prices edged slightly higher, providing only limited support for BPA. On the supply side, BPA availability continues to be ample. Meanwhile, demand remains weak and unchanged, leaving the market lacking any significant upward momentum. Overall, this has led to a decline in BPA prices, resulting in only moderate support for PC costs.

Demand Side: Currently, we remain in the traditional off-season for PC, with downstream factories further reducing their operating rates. Stocking activities are primarily driven by weak, rigid demand, and proactive inventory-building is rare. Given the prolonged lack of market momentum across the industry, coupled with persistently high social inventories and an oversupply of goods flooding the market, the inherent supply-demand imbalance within this range shows little sign of improvement. On top of this, foreign trade orders also remain sluggish, putting additional pressure on end-user companies, which are increasingly resistant to purchasing higher-priced materials. Meanwhile, traders are facing mounting financial strain, leading to a rise in price-concession-driven transactions as they prioritize securing sales. As a result, the pace of goods circulation within the market has slowed significantly, and trading activity continues to be dominated by contract-based deliveries. Overall, demand-side factors are failing to provide meaningful support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Prediction

In mid-August, the Chinese PC market experienced a downturn. The upstream bisphenol A market remained weak, providing little support to PC cost values. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants were generally stable, with the supply-demand imbalance remaining unchanged. The downstream demand still showed characteristics of the off-season, making it difficult for positive market factors to emerge. Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards future developments. Currently, PC prices are at a low level and continue to fall, but market momentum is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that the PC market may continue to search for a bottom.