Corn’s Surprise Surge: Export Fireworks Ignite Bullish Sentiment

Corn markets lit up during the week ending November 28, 2025, as explosive U.S. export data and fund short-covering propelled Chicago futures to multi-month highs. March corn soared 2.3% to $4.4775/bushel, fueled by a stunning revelation: 3.4 million metric tons in net sales for the week ending October 16—far exceeding expectations.

Even more tantalizing: a single-day flash sale of 274,000 tons to an “unknown destination”, sparking speculation that China—facing localized harvest shortfalls—was back in the market. Add to that weekly export inspections of 1.63 million tons (up 62% year-over-year), and the narrative shifts from surplus to scarcity.

Critically, U.S. corn is now the world’s cheapest: Gulf FOB at $209/ton, undercutting Argentina ($210) and Brazil ($220). Ethanol production also hit near-record levels at 1.113 million barrels/day, reinforcing bio-demand strength.

Yet caution persists. South America’s weather remains largely favorable, and Brazil’s first-crop planting wraps up smoothly. While speculative net shorts have shrunk to ~95,000 contracts, any sustained rally requires a catalyst—be it drought in the Southern Cone or a finalized U.S.-China trade deal. For now, corn rides a wave of optimism—but the ocean of global supply hasn’t vanished.