France’s Wheat Rebounds—But Only Briefly Against a Tsunami of Cheap Grain

French wheat prices flickered upward last week, but the rally was short-lived, snuffed out by an overwhelming tide of low-cost exports from Russia and Argentina. On November 27, top-grade wheat in Rouen traded at $228/ton, up $2 from the prior week—yet still dwarfed by Argentina’s $206–210/ton offers.

Euronext futures told a starker tale: the benchmark March contract fell 2.08% to €188/ton, as funds extended their bearish bets. Speculative net short positions in EU wheat now stand at 194,538 lots, up from 187,262 the week before—a clear vote of no confidence.

Why? Because Europe is swimming against a global current of abundance. The EU’s 2025/26 wheat export tally stands at 9.19 million tons, down 5% year-over-year, while imports have collapsed by 51%. Russia’s relentless flow—4.7 to 5.4 million tons exported in November alone—keeps pressure on Mediterranean and North African buyers, France’s traditional strongholds.

Compounding the pain: the euro strengthened 0.73% against the dollar, making EU grain even less competitive in dollar-denominated markets. Though France’s own crop outlook improved—output now seen at 33.33 million tons, up 29.8% from last year—that very success feeds the glut. In a world drowning in wheat, even quality struggles to command a premium.