MTBE Market Prices Fluctuate Narrowly

December 05 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from December 1st to 5th, the price of MTBE first rose and then fell from 4,922 CNY/ton to 4,902 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 0.41% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 2.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.64%. The Chinese MTBE market initially strengthened but later weakened. In the first half of the week, the market was mainly characterized by fluctuating upward trends. The favorable trend in international crude oil prices provided positive support for market sentiment, and manufacturers actively pushed up prices. Downstream operators took the opportunity to replenish their inventories, resulting in smooth overall transactions. However, after a slight increase in prices, there was a lack of sustained positive support for demand. Additionally, some large manufacturers continued to release a significant amount of supply, leading to ongoing supply-demand imbalances. Combined with the weakening of crude oil prices, the market saw a slight decline in the second half of the week.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have declined. The primary negative factors include ongoing market assessments of developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and persistent concerns about long-term supply surpluses, putting downward pressure on oil prices. As of December 4, the settlement price for the February Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $63.26 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international oil prices still have some room for a slight increase. However, given the anticipated reduction in retail price caps for refined oil products this round, the refined oil market is unlikely to break free from its volatile pattern. Both buyers and sellers remain rational in their purchasing activities, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere in the market. The demand side for MTBE is weighed down by bearish factors.

Supply side: Ningbo Haode and Hebei Xinxinyuan plants have plans to start operations, which is expected to increase resource supply. The MTBE supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

As of December 5, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected manufacturers:

As of the close on December 4, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price $3.4 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore quoted at $649.79–$651.79 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price $10.75 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA quoted at $773.49–$773.99 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price $36.16 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices quoted at $693.84–$694.19 per ton ($195.91–$196.01 per gallon).

Market Forecast: Raw material prices remain at high levels, leaving manufacturers hovering near the break-even point and giving them an inclination to support prices. However, there are expectations of increased resource supply, while positive factors on the gasoline demand side are insufficient to provide strong support. MTBE analysts believe that the Chinese MTBE market is likely to see a downward trend.