September 15 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, in mid-September 2026, the butadiene market in China first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. The market price within the month increased from 13,333.33 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 14,333.33 CNY/ton by mid-month, with a cumulative price increase of 7.5% during the period.
At the beginning of the month, the strengthening support from the raw material end, coupled with a tightening of spot supply in the market, led to a strong sentiment among traders to push up prices, resulting in consecutive days of price increases. By mid-month, as the downstream purchasing momentum weakened and some maintenance units gradually resumed production, high-level transactions in the market became sluggish, leading to a slight decline in prices. However, the average price for the entire period was still noticeably higher than at the beginning of the month, and the market as a whole maintained a relatively strong operational pattern.
Cost Perspective: In the first half of September, the crude oil market experienced volatile yet generally bullish trends, with international oil prices steadily moving higher. This upward shift in oil prices drove a corresponding increase in production costs for ethylene cracking units in China. As butadiene is a byproduct of ethylene cracking, the cost support from its feedstock continues to strengthen. Meanwhile, prices for naphtha and mixed C4 feedstocks in China have also risen in tandem, leaving little room for refining and petrochemical companies to reduce their butadiene production costs. Earlier low-priced feedstock inventories are gradually being depleted, and the cost of newly procured feedstocks has risen, prompting manufacturers to maintain price offers at or above cost levels—a key factor underpinning the sustained rise in butadiene prices at the beginning of the month. However, in the middle of the month, the upward momentum of crude oil prices slowed down, weakening the positive impact on costs and making it increasingly difficult to push prices higher. As a result, the market’s upward trend began to slow. As of September 14, the settlement price for the October WTI crude oil futures contract was $101.39 per barrel, while the settlement price for the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $105.68 per barrel.
Supply side:
In early September, multiple butadiene cracking units in China entered a period of maintenance, reducing the amount of spot goods available and tightening regional supply. Holders were reluctant to sell and pushed prices higher, with limited spot circulation driving a rapid increase in prices. By mid-September, the previously shut-down units gradually restarted, and the supply of butadiene began to increase. Additionally, some external supplies continued to flow into the Chinese market, leading to an increase in spot supply. With downstream buyers being cautious at high price levels, the inventory turnover rate of traders slowed down, and the tight supply situation was significantly alleviated. The increased supply put pressure on prices, causing them to drop slightly from their peak. Overall, the supply situation showed a phased change, with a reduction in early September and an increase in mid-September.
Sinopec's various sales companies have set the butadiene price at 14,900 CNY/ton as of September 15, an increase of 1,700 CNY/ton from September 1.
Yantai Wanhua's 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 112 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 14,500 CNY per ton.
Satellite Chemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with 336 tons available for external sales, starting at 14,000 CNY per ton.
Company | Price (CNY/ton) | Capacity | Plant Status Yantai Wanhua | 112 tons for external sales, floor price 14,500 CNY/ton | 200,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales Satellite Chemical | 336 tons for external sales, starting bid 14,000 CNY/ton | 90,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales
Demand Side:
The downstream synthetic rubber and ABS resins industries showed divergent trends. In the early part of the month, the concentrated release of restocking demand from downstream factories, along with moderate production levels at rubber companies, and the anticipation of price increases in the market, led to intermediaries stockpiling in advance. This created an active trading atmosphere, effectively absorbing upstream supply and supporting the upward trend. By mid-month, after the butadiene price reached a high level, the production cost pressure on downstream manufacturers increased significantly. Orders for end products such as tires and plastic goods did not see a noticeable increase, and companies resisted high-priced raw materials, significantly slowing their procurement pace. They mostly made small, on-demand purchases, and the concentrated restocking behavior largely came to an end. The lack of follow-through demand weakened the market's upward momentum, leading to a quiet trading environment at high prices. This forced a moderate price correction, which became the main factor for the weakening trend in the mid-month.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, the cost side of crude oil still has a relatively strong expectation, providing continuous support to the bottom of butadiene, limiting the space for a significant price drop. On the supply side, the increase in supply from the resumption of maintenance facilities will continue in the short term, making it difficult for the market to see a tight supply situation again. On the demand side, there are no large-scale concentrated restocking plans from downstream, and the resistance to high prices continues, with rigid demand procurement unable to support another significant price increase. Based on the comprehensive monitoring data of the fundamentals, it is expected that the Chinese butadiene market in late September may maintain a narrow range of fluctuation at a high level, with limited room for both increases and decreases. Without unexpected widespread facility shutdowns or a sharp rise in crude oil prices, it will be difficult for the price to break through the high point seen in mid-September, and the overall trend will be stable with a slightly weaker bias.
