July 3rd, according to the news
This week, with increased supply and continued weak demand, the acrylonitrile market in China has continued to decline. As of July 3rd, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 10,000-10,100 CNY/ton, a decrease of 300-400 CNY/ton from last week's 10,300-10,500 CNY/ton; the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 9,850-9,950 CNY/ton, a decrease of 250 CNY/ton from last week's 10,100-10,200 CNY/ton.
Market Overview: This week, the Korla and Sinochem Quanzhou facilities in China successfully restarted, increasing supply while demand remained weak. The operating rate of the downstream acrylonitrile fiber industry decreased again, with insufficient spot buying interest, leading to a decline in market negotiation and transaction volumes. Additionally, export negotiation prices also fell. Under the backdrop of a weak fundamental situation, major suppliers have generally lowered their quotes. However, the price of the raw material propylene has significantly increased, further compressing the production profit margin for acrylonitrile, which to some extent curbed the market price decrease.
Supply side:
During the week, acrylonitrile plants experienced both startup and shutdown activities. The Shandong Kelure and Sinochem Quanzhou plants successfully resumed operations, while the Sinopec Sinochem Petrochemical and Tianchen Qixiang plants underwent scheduled maintenance as planned. As a result, the capacity utilization rate of China’s acrylonitrile industry rose to around 75%, leading to an overall increase in supply. According to statistics, this week (June 26 – July 2), the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese acrylonitrile plants reached 74.43%, up by 5.02% from the previous week. Weekly production totaled approximately 86,800 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons over the previous week. Buying activity remained steady, driven by essential demand, and corporate inventories showed mixed trends, though overall inventory levels remained relatively low. As of July 1, total inventories stood at around 44,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries in China varied, with the ABS capacity utilization rate at 58.5%, up by 0.4% from last week; Jilin Chemical Fiber's Jilin Meng Acrylic Co., Ltd. reduced its 155,000 tons of acrylic plant load to around 70% of production; Huaron Spinning reduced its 150,000 tons of acrylic facility to around 50% of production, resulting in the acrylic industry's capacity utilization rate dropping to 72.90%, down by 10.37% from last week; the acrylamide capacity utilization rate was 52.87%, up by 0.84% from last week. Overall, demand has increased.
Cost aspect:
Propylene prices for raw materials rose this week, while acrylonitrile prices fell, leading to a contraction in profits. According to statistics, as of July 3, the mainstream closing price for propylene in Shandong was between 7,570 and 7,700 CNY per ton, with an average price of 7,635 CNY per ton—up 725 CNY per ton from last weekend’s average price of 6,910 CNY per ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile stood at 9,731 CNY per ton, down 0.24% month-on-month. During the same period, the average profit from acrylonitrile production was 649 CNY per ton, down 372 CNY per ton month-on-month.
Looking ahead, current inventories at major producers remain low. However, downstream demand continues to weaken, resulting in insufficient spot buying interest and a decline in even the most essential, rigid-demand purchases. As a result, market negotiations and transactions have slowed down. Moreover, export negotiation prices have also begun to fall. Overall, the fundamental outlook remains weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to weaken in the short term. Nevertheless, the price of propylene—the raw material—has also risen, which to some extent will help curb further price declines in the market.
