In November, the Chinese marine fuel market trended downward with fluctuations

December 5th News

According to the commodity analysis system, the marine fuel market in East China experienced a fluctuating downward trend in November. As of December 4, the average price of 180CST fuel oil in China was 5337.50 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from 5400.00 CNY/ton on November 1.

In November, China’s 180 CST fuel oil prices experienced volatile downward trends: In early November, Chinese marine fuel prices declined, mainly due to lower prices of blending feedstock for marine fuels in China. Meanwhile, coastal freight rates in the end-user shipping market continued to rise; however, shipowners’ immediate need to refuel remained the primary driver, providing limited support to the marine fuel market. In mid-November, the Chinese marine fuel market halted its decline and rebounded, as rising prices of blending feedstock for marine fuels in China provided cost support, leading to an uptick in market conditions. In late November, although blending feedstock prices for marine fuels in China rose again, offering cost support, increased volatility in international crude oil prices intensified cautious sentiment among buyers. Downstream coastal shipping markets saw weakening demand for cargo transportation, causing freight rates to ease. Consequently, shipowners’ demand for replenishing fuel remained primarily driven by immediate needs, resulting in a pullback in marine fuel market conditions. As of December 4, according to available information, the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 180 CST at Zhongran Dalian were quoted at RMB 5,500 per ton, while the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 120 CST were quoted at RMB 5,600 per ton. At Zhongran Shanghai, the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 180 CST were quoted at RMB 5,000 per ton, and those for 120 CST were quoted at RMB 5,100 per ton.

In November, international crude oil prices experienced volatile downward trends: In the first half of the month, the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks and, with the U.S. government shutdown expected to end, boosted economic and demand prospects, leading to a rise in international oil prices; in the middle of the month, the U.S. proposed a new plan to restart peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, easing geopolitical risk concerns and causing international oil prices to fall; in the latter half of the month, rumors emerged that Ukraine had agreed to the U.S.-proposed new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, further easing geopolitical anxieties and driving international oil prices lower.

Regarding international fuel oil, according to information from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week ending December 3, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 850,000 barrels, reaching a three-week high of 25.559 million barrels. At the Fujairah port, weekly petroleum product data showed that fuel oil inventories accumulated by 1.53 million barrels, rising to 12.25 million barrels—a month-on-month increase of 14.32%.

According to the commodity analysis system, the bunker fuel market in East China showed a downward trend in November. As of December 4th, the average price of Chinese 180CST fuel oil was 5337.50 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from 5400.00 CNY/ton on November 1st.

In November, China’s 180 CST fuel oil prices experienced volatile downward trends: In early November, Chinese marine fuel prices declined, mainly due to lower prices of blending feedstock for marine fuels in China. Meanwhile, coastal freight rates in the end-user shipping market continued to rise; however, shipowners’ immediate need to refuel remained the primary driver, providing limited support to the marine fuel market. In mid-November, the Chinese marine fuel market halted its decline and rebounded, as rising prices of blending feedstock for marine fuels in China provided cost support, leading to an uptick in market conditions. In late November, although blending feedstock prices for marine fuels in China rose again, offering cost support, increased volatility in international crude oil prices heightened cautious sentiment among buyers. Downstream coastal shipping markets saw weaker demand for cargo transportation, causing freight rates to ease. Consequently, shipowners’ demand for replenishing fuel remained primarily driven by immediate needs, resulting in a pullback in marine fuel market conditions. As of December 4, according to available information, the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 180 CST at Zhongran’s Dalian region were quoted at RMB 5,500 per ton, while the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 120 CST were quoted at RMB 5,600 per ton. At Zhongran’s Shanghai region, the ex-warehouse low-sulfur fuel oil prices for 180 CST were quoted at RMB 5,000 per ton, and those for 120 CST were quoted at RMB 5,100 per ton.

In November, international crude oil prices experienced volatile downward trends: In the first half of the month, as the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks and anticipated that the U.S. government shutdown would soon end—boosting economic and demand prospects—international oil prices rose; in the middle of the month, the U.S. proposed a new plan to restart peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, easing geopolitical risk concerns and causing international oil prices to fall; in the latter half of the month, rumors emerged that Ukraine had agreed to the U.S.-proposed new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, further easing geopolitical anxieties and leading to another drop in international oil prices.

Regarding international fuel oil, according to information from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week ending December 3, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 850,000 barrels, reaching a three-week high of 25.559 million barrels. At the Fujairah port, weekly petroleum product data showed that fuel oil inventories accumulated by 1.53 million barrels, rising to 12.25 million barrels—a month-on-month increase of 14.32%.

Market Forecast: Crude oil prices are expected to rise in December, providing support for China's marine fuel market. Shipowners’ urgent need to replenish fuel supplies is driving small-volume orders, while coastal bulk freight rates remain generally stable. Currently, the ex-warehouse price for 180cst low-sulfur fuel oil stands at RMB 5,100–5,500 per ton, and the ex-warehouse price for 120cst low-sulfur fuel oil is RMB 5,200–5,600 per ton. It is anticipated that the 180CST fuel oil market will likely consolidate in the near term.