Methanol Market Trading Quiet

December 5th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 28 to December 5 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market first increased and then decreased from 2,115 CNY/ton to around 20,755 CNY/ton. During this period, the price fell by 1.89%, increased by 0.14% month-over-month, and decreased by 16.64% year-over-year. In the first half of the week, the methanol inventory in the port slightly decreased, and with the expectation of a better market outlook, it boosted market sentiment, leading to a generally strong performance in the port methanol market. As the weekend approached, the high downstream inventory led to a decline in purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a weaker methanol market.

As of the close on December 5, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2601 opened at 2113 CNY/ton, with a high of 2121 CNY/ton, a low of 2069 CNY/ton, and closed at 2077 CNY/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a price decrease of 1.94%. The trading volume was 1,004,115, the open interest was 872,092, and the daily change in open interest was -62,591.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of December 5, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Coal demand recovery remains weak, inventory levels continue to rise, and prices are fluctuating weakly, resulting in weak but stable cost support. The cost side of methanol is influenced by predominantly bearish factors.

Comparison Chart of Coal/Bituminous Coal (Upstream Raw Material) and Methanol Price Trends:

Demand Side: The MTO plant load remains robust, but traditional downstream winter seasonal restrictions continue to limit operating rates, making it difficult for demand to increase. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol is weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Daqing methanol plant, Inner Mongolia and BaiTai, Jiuyuan Chemical are under plant maintenance; overall, the amount of loss exceeds the amount recovered, leading to a decrease in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on December 4, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 316.5–317.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5–90.5 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 259.5–260.5 per ton.

Looking ahead, as the operating rate in the methanol industry is expected to rise in the later period, spot supply on the Chinese mainland is likely to increase. Methanol analysts predict that the spot market for methanol in China will continue to remain predominantly weak.