In 2025, China's hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated upward; in 2026, the price level may continue to rise

December 31st, according to reports

I. The Chinese anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is expected to maintain a generally volatile yet upward trend in 2025.

According to monitoring data, the overall Chinese anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market maintained an upward fluctuating trend in 2025. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was 11,583.33 CNY/ton, and by the end of the year, it had risen to 13,033.33 CNY/ton, with a cumulative increase of 12.52% for the whole year. According to the price trend chart, the highest point of the year appeared at the end of December, with a price of 13,033.33 CNY/ton; the lowest point of the year appeared in August, with a price of 10,650 CNY/ton, and the maximum price fluctuation for the whole year was about 22.38%.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the hydrofluoric acid market in China experienced a fluctuation process of "stability—rise—correction" in the first half of the year, while the second half of the year was mainly characterized by a "bottoming out and rebound" trend.

In the first half of the year (January to March), the market price of hydrofluoric acid showed a "stable first, then rising" trend. In January, due to the depletion of old quotas in the refrigerant industry and weak terminal demand, factories were not very active in production, with the industry's operating rate generally maintained at a low level, around 60%. The market supply was stable. The procurement demand for hydrofluoric acid from downstream refrigerant manufacturers was at its lowest point of the year, mainly focusing on essential inventory. The hydrofluoric acid market operated steadily.

As we enter March, China’s hydrofluoric acid market has entered a round of “cost-driven” price increases. The price of sulfuric acid, the key raw material, has surged dramatically, while fluorite prices remain stubbornly high. As a result, factory profits have been severely squeezed, with some even suffering significant losses, leading to a marked decline in production willingness. Some factories have even been forced to halt operations. Market participants are now strongly inclined to raise prices. Meanwhile, the downstream refrigerant industry is gradually entering its traditional peak production season, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 70-80%. This robust demand is providing strong support to the hydrofluoric acid market.

(April–June): At the beginning of April, due to a drop in raw material prices, corporate profits rebounded somewhat, boosting production enthusiasm and resulting in relatively ample inventories. The market utilization rate reached 59.2%, up 4.1 percentage points from March, with output totaling 175,600 tons—a 7.0% increase month-on-month. By the end of April, as the issue of overcapacity became increasingly pronounced, companies, pressured by inventory levels and cash flow constraints, grew more inclined to lower prices and offload their stock, further accelerating the downward trend in prices. After May, downstream sectors entered the off-season for procurement; coupled with accumulating inventories and easing raw material costs, prices continued to decline, falling by more than 10% by the end of June compared to their mid-year peak.

Second half of the year (July–December): As the most critical raw material, fluorite prices, after experiencing consecutive declines in the first half of the year, entered a clear upward trend starting from late August. Another major raw material—sulfuric acid—also saw a robust price increase in the second half. The rise in raw material costs forced hydrofluoric acid prices to follow suit passively. As of December 30, hydrofluoric acid prices had risen to their highest annual level of 13,033.33 CNY per ton, essentially recovering the price decline experienced in the first half of the year.

II. 2026 Hydrofluoric Acid Supply Forecast: Hydrofluoric Acid Production Capacity Continues to Grow, with Output Steadily Increasing

In recent years, emerging industries such as lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and semiconductors have developed rapidly in China, leading to a surge in demand for fluorochemical products and driving the rapid expansion of the fluorochemical industry. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF), as a raw material for producing downstream fluorochemical products, is the most important intermediate in the fluorochemical industry, with its production capacity continuously increasing and output showing an upward trend year by year.

Statistics on China's hydrofluoric acid production capacity and output in recent years:

From the chart, it can be seen that in 2024, China's hydrofluoric acid production capacity was 3,843,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9%. By 2025, the hydrofluoric acid production capacity reached 3,988,000 tons per year, and the output could reach 2,750,000 tons per year, an increase of about 18% compared to the 2024 output of 2,329,000 tons. China's hydrofluoric acid industry has strong production and market supply capabilities, and it is expected that the production capacity of hydrofluoric acid will continue to grow in 2026.

2025 China’s Hydrofluoric Acid Production Capacity Distribution:

China's hydrogen fluoride production capacity is mainly distributed in Fujian, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Zhejiang, among which the annual production capacity in Fujian and Inner Mongolia both exceed 600,000 tons. According to statistics, there are approximately 77 hydrogen fluoride production enterprises in China, with the production capacity in East China accounting for as high as 54%, while Central China and Northwest China account for 9% each. Due to the relatively low concentration and dispersion of China's anhydrous hydrogen fluoride industry, most of the production enterprises are small in scale, leading to intense competition.

2025 China’s Major Enterprises’ Production Capacity Distribution:

Currently, the main producers of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in China include Inner Mongolia Jin'ebo Fluorine Chemical Co., Ltd., Wengfu Group, Zhejiang Juhua, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and others. The estimated total production capacity is about 3,988,000 tons per year, accounting for approximately 87% of the global total capacity.

New Hydrofluoric Acid Production Capacity Project for 2025

III. 2026 Hydrofluoric Acid Demand Forecast: Demand Continues to Grow, with Development in Emerging Fields

With advances in science and technology and the development of emerging fields such as new energy, new materials, and semiconductors, China’s applications for hydrofluoric acid have become increasingly diverse. These applications have expanded beyond traditional areas like refrigerants and fluorinated salts to include emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluoropolymers, and integrated circuits. Among these, refrigerants remain one of the largest downstream applications of hydrofluoric acid, accounting for approximately 51% of the market. Lithium hexafluorophosphate accounts for about 9%, fluoropolymers for roughly 9.5%, fluorine-containing fine chemicals for around 4%, and exports for about 2.5%. In addition to these major application areas, hydrofluoric acid is also used in several other fields, collectively accounting for 1.5%. This demonstrates that hydrofluoric acid has a remarkably broad range of applications and enjoys diversified market demand.

Downstream refrigerant quota situation in 2026: The quotas for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 will change only slightly compared to 2025.

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment's plan released in December set the total production quota for third-generation HFCs at 798,000 tons (an increase of 5,963 tons from 2025), with 394,000 tons for domestic use and 404,000 tons for export. The phase-out of second-generation HCFCs continues, with the R22 production quota set at 146,100 tons (a reduction of 3,000 tons from 2025), and R141b being completely phased out. The main varieties show a structural adjustment, with quotas for R32, R134a, and R245fa increased, and those for R143a and R227ea decreased. The upper limit for quota adjustments has been relaxed to 30%, with the supply-side CR6 around 90%, indicating high concentration. Overall, the growth in quotas for R32, R134a, and R245fa is driving demand for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF).

Quota allocation for the production of third-generation refrigerants by major enterprises:

The above data indicates an increase in the demand for hydrofluoric acid in the refrigerant industry, which may lead to a tight supply of HFC refrigerants in China, further driving up market prices.

In emerging application fields

1. New Energy Sector: This sector represents the largest source of growth, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20%. Lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF are the key drivers. Global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 13.3 million units, boosting hydrofluoric acid consumption to over 400,000 tons. New lithium salts are now being refined to G4/G5 grade purity. Photovoltaics: Global installed capacity has surpassed 50 GW, with N-type batteries accounting for over 60% of the market. Demand for electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid stands at 150,000 tons. Hydrogen Fuel Cells: Demand ranges from 8,000 to 12,000 tons, and this sector is poised for rapid growth over the next 3 to 5 years.

2. Semiconductors and Advanced Packaging: Demand for high-purity materials is booming, with growth rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Silicon-based semiconductors: China’s demand at the G4+ level is expected to reach 80,000 to 100,000 tons. The third-generation semiconductors SiC and GaN are driving demand growth by 18% to 22%. The advanced packaging market has surpassed US$40 billion, with demand growing at an annual rate of over 10%.

3. High-end fluorine-containing materials and fine chemicals: High-value-added growth in fluorine-containing pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals—corresponding to hydrofluoric acid consumption of 60,000–70,000 tons, with a growth rate of 10%–12%. The market size for specialty fluoropolymers reaches US$4.5 billion, driving demand growth at a rate of 8%–10%.

4. Display and Emerging Electronics: The steady growth of new display technologies is driving demand for electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid to 30,000–40,000 tons, with a growth rate of 7%–9%; demand for electronic chemicals continues to provide additional growth.

In summary, the demand for hydrofluoric acid in emerging fields has shown a significant growth trend. Fluorine-containing fine chemicals and polymers, new energy, semiconductors, and other areas have become important drivers of the growth in hydrogen fluoride demand. In the future, with technological progress and industrial upgrading, the application of hydrogen fluoride in emerging fields will become even more widespread, and its demand will continue to grow.

Hydrofluoric acid import and export aspects

China's hydrogen fluoride industry is primarily export-oriented, being the world's largest exporter of hydrogen fluoride. The volume of exports far exceeds that of imports, but in recent years, the export volume has also shown a downward trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China exported 227,600 tons of hydrogen fluoride, a decrease of about 2.69% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, China exported 219,300 tons of hydrogen fluoride, an increase of about 6.15% year-on-year.

Compared to the export volume, China's hydrofluoric acid import quantity is minimal. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of hydrogen fluoride amounted to 143.926 tons, a decrease of about 24.92% year-on-year.

The above data indicates that China's supply is abundant, with production capacity and technology fully capable of meeting domestic demand, leading to a reduction in the need for high-end imports; international demand is recovering, making external demand an important support, and the industry is export-driven, with the overall market stabilizing and improving, along with structural upgrades.

2026 Hydrofluoric Acid Market Outlook: In 2026, the hydrofluoric acid market in China will continue to exhibit a core trend of "stabilizing cost center, optimizing supply structure, and upgrading demand structure," with the overall market showing strong resilience.

On the cost side, fluorspar, a non-renewable strategic mineral and a key raw material, is subject to tight mining quotas, making it unlikely for its price to drop significantly. It is expected that the price will either maintain an upward trend or fluctuate within a certain range.

On the supply side, by 2026, China’s anhydrous hydrogen fluoride supply landscape will feature “moderate expansion of total production capacity, accelerated release of high-end capacity, coexistence of raw material constraints and policy controls, and sustained high-to-mid-level operating rates.” Overall supply volume will increase, but the structural differentiation will be pronounced, with supply of high-value-added products such as electronic-grade hydrogen fluoride remaining relatively tight. It is projected that China’s total annual production capacity for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in 2026 will reach 4.1 to 4.2 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% to 5%.

The demand side is showing significant structural differentiation. In traditional sectors, refrigerants—the largest downstream application of hydrofluoric acid—are experiencing marginal improvement in demand, yet their growth potential remains constrained, owing to limited increases in quotas for third-generation HFCs and the accelerated phase-out of second-generation HCFCs. Meanwhile, emerging sectors have become the core engine of growth: the new energy industry is driving rapid growth in demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF, while high-end hydrofluoric acid is seeing a surge in demand from sectors such as semiconductor etching and photovoltaic backsheets. Coupled with the onset of overseas air-conditioner replacement cycles and the continued strength of China’s export advantage in hydrofluoric acid, export demand is steadily rising, further bolstering overall market demand.

Overall Outlook: In 2026, China’s anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is expected to exhibit a trend of “higher price center, pronounced product differentiation, and tight supply-demand balance.” Prices have already begun to rise at the start of the year, with mainstream prices in markets such as Taicang reaching RMB 12,000 per ton. Throughout the year, high costs driven by elevated fluorite raw material prices, coupled with stringent environmental and energy consumption policies, will provide strong cost support. On the supply side, new production capacity is being released moderately, while outdated capacity is accelerating its exit from the market. On the demand side, the semiconductor and new-energy sectors are driving a sharp increase in demand for electronic-grade products, while demand for traditional refrigerants remains stable. Due to technological barriers, supply of electronic-grade products remains tight, resulting in significant price increases; industrial-grade products, meanwhile, are seeing a more balanced supply-demand situation, with prices fluctuating along with cost changes. Industry concentration is rising, with leading companies dominating the high-end market. Overall, the market is expected to remain stable yet show upward momentum, with structural opportunities becoming increasingly prominent. It is forecast that the average market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in China in 2026 may slightly exceed the 2025 level, and the market is likely to display a volatile yet generally strong trend throughout the year. The turning point for the market will heavily depend on fluctuations in fluorite costs on the supply side and the pace at which demand from emerging downstream sectors is released.