Lithium Carbonate Trending Upward, with a Bumpy Process

April 8th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the recent price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has continued to fluctuate. As of April 8th, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China was 156,000 CNY per ton, a 1.3% increase from the previous period and a 117% increase year-over-year. The trend is primarily driven by supply-side dynamics, demand resilience, and macroeconomic sentiment.

Supply Side: "Dual Disturbances" Game, Policy and Supply Uncertainty Dominate

The supply side is the core "trigger" of this round of price fluctuation. Two major disruptive factors continue to ferment, causing the market to swing back and forth between "relaxation expectations" and "long-term tightening."

Zimbabwe Ban: Pending and Repeatedly Disruptive

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an indefinite suspension of exports of both raw lithium ore and lithium concentrate. The ban was fully implemented ahead of schedule on March 3, with the core objective being to promote value-added processing of mineral resources locally, following the model adopted by Indonesia for nickel mining. At the end of March, rumors surfaced that Chinese companies such as Zhongmin Resources had been granted export quotas, prompting a sharp pullback in prices. However, Zhongmin Resources responded by stating, “We’re only in preliminary discussions; no specific timeline has been set.” At the eighth cabinet meeting held on March 31, the government reaffirmed the ban without indicating any signs of relaxation. On April 2, online reports revealed Zimbabwe’s latest document: Companies must complete and pass inspection of lithium sulfate plants meeting government standards by January 1, 2027, and ensure they are ready for commissioning. After January 1, 2027, only deeply processed products such as lithium sulfate will be permitted for export; exports of lithium concentrate will be completely prohibited.

Australia’s Fuel Crisis: Marginal Disruptions Amplified

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, some mines in Australia are facing tight supplies of diesel. The Australian mining industry consumes approximately 9.6 billion liters of diesel annually, and lithium mines are not prioritized for supply assurance. Although it has been clarified that diesel is mainly used for transportation and has not yet directly impacted production, Australia accounts for about 30% of the global lithium supply. Given the current decline in supply flexibility, even minor disruptions could easily escalate into “supply disruption risks,” further intensifying market anxiety.

Other Supply Disruptions: The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production at mines such as Jiandixiawo in Ningde persists, and coupled with the unclear pace of resuming production at China’s major mines, the overall supply side lacks sufficient flexibility, further amplifying price fluctuations.

Demand Side: Energy Storage Becomes a Core Growth Driver, and Auto Industry Recovery Provides Support

Demand is the "ballast" at high prices, with dual drivers of energy storage and new energy vehicles, showing more resilient demand than expected in China.

Energy Storage: The Largest Growth Engine, Production Share Exceeds 40%

In March 2026, China's lithium battery market production totaled approximately 219 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 16.5%. The proportion of energy storage cell production increased to 40.6%, significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, and has become a core demand source on par with power batteries. Energy storage system prices have stabilized and rebounded, with the price of 314Ah energy storage cells rising from 0.31 yuan/Wh to 0.36 yuan/Wh, and the winning bid price for energy storage systems increasing from 0.5 yuan/Wh to 0.8 yuan/Wh. The combination of price recovery and increased demand is accelerating the realization of market prosperity.

New Energy Vehicles: Moderate Recovery, Strong Resilience in Vehicle Installations

In March, the nationwide wholesale volume of new-energy vehicles from passenger car manufacturers was estimated at 1.12 million units, flat year-on-year but up month-on-month. Coupled with the continued increase in the average battery capacity per vehicle, the overall battery installation volume has not significantly declined. In March, Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivered over 85,600 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 46%. In the first quarter, nearly 60% of Tesla’s global deliveries came from the Shanghai factory, highlighting the strong demand in the Chinese market.

Supply-demand gap support: Morgan Stanley forecasts a lithium shortage of 80,000 tons by 2026, while UBS predicts a shortage of 22,000 tons. This supply-demand gap provides fundamental support for higher prices.

SpotCom Technical Analysis of Future Trends

As shown in the figure, the current daily average has crossed above the 10-day moving average, and the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, which meets the criteria for an "uptrend."

Currently, although the price is at a relatively low level in the past 10 days, it has been at a high level in the long term, leaving limited room for further increases.

Overall, the demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and there is upward momentum in the price curve. However, frequent news disruptions and significant instability in the supply side, along with already high prices, limit the potential for further increases. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.