June 23rd, according to reports
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On June 23, 2026, the average price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke was 1,927 CNY/ton. The eighth round of spot price increases has been fully implemented. Currently, the mainstream steel mills in China have increased the price of wet quenched coke by 50 CNY/ton and dry quenched coke by 55 CNY/ton. The spot price increase has been realized, but the futures market has already reflected the pessimistic expectations for the off-season. This morning, the main coke futures contract fell by more than 3%, showing a divergence between the weakening futures and spot markets, and increasing market disagreement.
2. Market Analysis
Market Trading: The impact of safety inspections at coal mines in Qinyuan, Shanxi, and other areas still persists. Although some high-sulfur coking coal mines have gradually resumed production, the resumed capacity has only reached 40% of the pre-shutdown level. There is a severe shortage of low-sulfur, high-quality coking coal, with China's mine capacity utilization rate at only 71.2%, and the mines continue to reduce their inventories. At the import end, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains stable, but it is mainly medium-sulfur 1/3 coking coal, with limited high-sulfur coking coal supplementation, and the structural shortage of coal sources has not been alleviated. The total coking coal inventory within coke plants is 10,690,800 tons, down 2.8% week-on-week, with the number of days of raw material availability continuously decreasing, constraining the ability of coke plants to increase production.
Capacity Utilization Rate: Among a sample of 230 independent coking plants nationwide, the capacity utilization rate stood at 74.39%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous week. Daily average coke production totaled 649,400 tons, marking a slight decrease. In the major producing regions of Shanxi and Hebei, some small- and medium-sized coking enterprises have proactively reduced their production loads by 10% to 15% due to high costs of coking coal—their primary raw material—and thin profit margins. Meanwhile, large, integrated coking plants continue to operate at full capacity, resulting in a clear divergence in production levels.
Downstream Demand: Currently, the daily average pig iron production of sample steel mills in China is 2.4093 million tons, at a high level for the year. Long-process steel mills have not undergone large-scale maintenance, maintaining a stable basic demand for coke. Complete cessation or significant reduction of procurement is not feasible. Continuous heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin in southern China has hindered construction work, leading to weak spot transactions for rebar and sections. Tangshan billet prices have fallen below the 3,000 yuan threshold, with finished steel prices continuously declining. Additionally, the implementation of the eighth round of coke price increases has raised smelting costs, pushing most long-process steel mills to the break-even point. Some companies are seeing rebar gross profits of less than 100 yuan, exacerbating loss pressures.
spot price: First-grade metallurgical coke (wet quench) in Shanxi: 1810-1860 CNY/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; dry quench coke in Hebei and Shandong: 1980-2030 CNY/ton, up 55 yuan; FOB price of first-grade coke at Tianjin Port: 1820 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-over-week.
III. Future Market Forecast
Coking coal analysts believe that during the off-season from July to August, when terminal construction demand is at its weakest for the year, steel mills are conducting small-scale maintenance, molten iron production continues to decline, and with the resumption of coking coal production and the release of additional supply, the supply-demand balance for coke is shifting from tight equilibrium to a looser situation.
