June 23rd, according to reports
The price of isooctanol in China has stopped rising and started to fall.
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of 2-ethylhexanol on June 23 was 7,900 CNY/ton, first rising and then falling from the price of 7,966.67 CNY/ton on June 1, with a price decrease of 0.84%; and it fell from the price of 8,266.67 CNY/ton on June 12, with a price decrease of 4.44%. The easing of the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran led to the dissipation of the risk premium in international crude oil, and propylene prices significantly dropped, weakening the cost support for 2-ethylhexanol, causing its price to peak and then decline.
Spot market trend forecast:
After June 14, the isooctanol price moving average successively fell below the 10-day and 20-day price moving averages. On June 21, the 10-day price moving average fell below the 20-day price moving average, strengthening the signal of a decline in isooctanol prices.
Lower Acrylic Costs
According to the commodity market analysis system, the propylene price on June 23 was 7,684.33 CNY/ton, a significant decrease from the price of 8,834.33 CNY/ton on June 12, with a price decrease of 13.02%. The easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran has led to the dissipation of risk premiums in international crude oil prices, resulting in a substantial drop in propylene prices and increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol prices.
2-ethylhexanol supply is sufficient
In 2026, it is expected that an additional 1.14 million tons of annual production capacity will be added in China, with the total supply expected to reach 3.73 million tons. In June, multiple new facilities are gradually being commissioned, and the operating load of 2-ethylhexanol plants has slightly decreased. The supply of 2-ethylhexanol is sufficient, and the support for price increases has weakened.
Downstream demand is weak.
The downstream plasticizer industry is in a traditional low season, with operations dropping to around 50%; there has been no substantial improvement in demand from the terminal real estate and building materials sectors. Downstream rigid demand procurement is predominant, with a clear resistance to high-priced raw materials. Downstream factories are adopting a strategy of purchasing as needed, resisting high prices, and high-priced transactions are rare. Traders are forced to lower prices to clear inventory.
Export window narrows
Middle East crude oil supply has resumed, and Southeast Asia has increased its import of resources. The cost-effectiveness of China's export of 2-ethylhexanol has decreased, leading to a lower expectation for 2-ethylhexanol exports. The external demand cannot absorb the excess supply from China, further depressing prices in China.
Outlook for the Future
The 2-ethylhexanol product data analyst believes that on the cost side: crude oil and propylene are operating weakly, making it difficult for costs to rebound strongly; on the supply side: new production capacities continue to be released, with operations maintaining a relatively high level, making it difficult to alleviate inventory pressure; on the demand side: July is still the traditional off-season for downstream, making it difficult for demand to recover quickly. In the short term, 2-ethylhexanol will mainly experience a weak and narrow consolidation, with limited potential for a rebound. The key resistance range is 8100–8200 CNY/ton, with support at 7700–7800 CNY/ton.
