Industry inventory accumulation pushes acrylonitrile prices to five-year low in China

January 16 news

At the beginning of 2026, the Chinese acrylonitrile market continued the downward trend from the end of the previous year, with the price decrease further widening. The current price has also reached the lowest level since 2021, and the supply-demand contradiction is expected to persist in the short term, making it difficult for the market to hit bottom. As of January 16, the mainstream ex-tank price at East China ports was 7,200 CNY/ton; the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 7,100 CNY/ton.

Acrylonitrile prices have fallen to a historic low, and the production loss in China is gradually expanding.

Looking at the acrylonitrile price data over the past five years, the price at the beginning of 2026 is at the lowest level for the same period, with a difference of more than 2,000 CNY/ton compared to the same period in previous years. The current ex-tank price at the East China port is around 7,150-7,250 CNY/ton, and this round of decline started in early December, with a drop of 800-900 CNY/ton so far, a price decrease of 10.5%. The oversupply is the direct factor leading to the price drop, as major suppliers are experiencing poor sales and are therefore actively reducing prices to promote sales.

Meanwhile, the prices of the main raw materials, propylene and synthetic ammonia, remain relatively firm, leading to an expanding loss situation in acrylonitrile production. According to current theoretical calculations, the raw material cost for acrylonitrile remains around 7,200 CNY per ton. For some producers who procure raw materials externally, acrylonitrile products no longer have any marginal benefits.

The supply-demand contradiction persists, and the risk of inventory accumulation is intensifying.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylonitrile industry in China has become increasingly evident. However, during the period from October to November, the overall inventory within the industry remained manageable as it was transferred downstream through the supply chain. Starting in December, supply continued to increase while demand decreased temporarily. At the same time, some downstream users reached their inventory absorption capacity, while others were less willing to build up inventory due to the end of the year or ongoing contract negotiations. As a result, the inventory pressure on upstream producers in China began to rise. Additionally, considering the Spring Festival holiday in February, the sales pressure before the holiday in January also increased, prompting suppliers to actively reduce prices to clear inventory.

Supply-side changes still determine the market turning point.

In the short term, the improvement of the supply and demand relationship in the acrylonitrile industry still mainly depends on the adjustment of the supply side, as there is no obvious expectation for an improvement in demand. The main downstream sectors, such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, are also facing competitive pressures from supply and demand mismatches. The ABS industry continues to incur losses, the destocking of the acrylic fiber industry is slow, and the acrylamide industry still has some shutdown plans around the Spring Festival. Even if we consider the increased demand for pre-holiday inventory building and low-positioned stockpiling, given the current saturated supply situation of acrylonitrile, the support for the market will still be limited and lack sustainability. From the current information, there are not many planned maintenance outages for acrylonitrile plants in the first quarter. However, as the loss situation gradually worsens, it is expected that passive production cut measures will gradually be put on the agenda. At that time, the substantial reduction in supply will prompt the market to reach a turning point.

Market Outlook: Currently, the acrylonitrile market in China is experiencing a weak and consolidating trend, with localized sales pressures. Fundamentals remain weak, and there are still expectations of increased supply in certain regions. Additionally, considering the anticipated temporary weakening of demand around the Spring Festival, the market is likely to continue its sluggish performance in the short term.