Oil Coke to Rise Sharply in 2025, Likely to Experience Relatively Strong Volatility in 2026

January 17th, News

Review of the 2025 Petroleum Coke Market Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, in 2025, the price of petcoke from local refineries in China surged significantly at the beginning of the year and then fluctuated at a high level. On January 1st, the mainstream price of petcoke from local refineries was 1615.00 CNY/ton, and by December 31st, the market mainstream price was around 2598.25 CNY/ton, with an annual price increase of 60.88%; among these, the highest price of the year appeared on November 5th, at approximately 2855.75 CNY/ton, and the lowest price was on January 2nd, at 1602.50 CNY/ton, resulting in an annual maximum fluctuation range of 78.21%.

From the Shandong medium sulfur petroleum coke price data, the entire year can be divided into three core stages:

January-February saw a significant surge in petroleum coke prices, driven primarily by supply contraction and downstream inventory buildup: Before and after the Chinese New Year, some local refineries' coking units were shut down or reduced production, leading to a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke. This, coupled with the concentrated release of restocking demand from aluminum carbon and anode material enterprises, tightened market resources. In late February, the trading of petroleum coke from local refineries was moderate; due to the substantial increase in petroleum coke prices earlier, downstream sectors faced cost pressures and were cautious in their purchases, limiting the outflow of petroleum coke from refineries. Additionally, as some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke specifications, the price of petroleum coke continued to decline.

From March to June, prices experienced volatile declines, primarily due to the concentrated arrival of imported coke coupled with cautious demand. In the second quarter, U.S. coke shipments surged, driven by expectations of tariffs, leading to a buildup of port inventories. Downstream buyers became less willing to accept high prices, and market transactions were largely driven by immediate, essential needs. Additionally, from April to June, the benchmark procurement price for pre-baked anodes in Shandong continued to decline, further intensifying the market’s wait-and-see sentiment.

July to December saw fluctuating price increases, mainly due to increased refinery maintenance and a rebound in anode demand: In the second half of the year, the number of Chinese refineries undergoing shutdowns for maintenance increased, leading to a continuous reduction in the supply of petcoke from local refineries. Downstream anode material companies were actively purchasing, and the benchmark procurement price for prebaked anodes in Shandong continued to rise from July to December, supporting the market for petcoke from local refineries.

2026 Petroleum Coke Market Forecast

Cost side:

From a cost perspective, crude oil prices are a key factor influencing petroleum coke prices. The uncertainty surrounding future crude oil prices will likely lead to fluctuations in petroleum coke prices. In 2025, after reaching a peak at the beginning of the year, international crude oil prices experienced volatile downward movements throughout the year. The central price level shifted noticeably lower compared to the previous two years. According to data, Brent crude oil prices declined by 17.56% in 2025. The core rationale behind this decline lies in the combined effect of an oversupply in the global market and weak demand, exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and OPEC’s increased production. Short-term rebounds were also triggered by geopolitical disruptions. In 2026, the fundamental supply-and-demand dynamics for crude oil remain relatively loose, with persistent pressure from oversupply. Even if OPEC temporarily halts its production increase in the first quarter, oil prices in the first half of the year will still face downward pressure from oversupply. Overall, in 2026, the central price level of crude oil is likely to move lower, though the room for further decline will be relatively limited. The average price of Brent crude oil may stabilize within the range of $55–$65 per barrel.

Supply side:

China's delayed coking unit processing capacity

In 2025, China's delayed coking unit processing capacity remained relatively stable, with a total capacity of approximately 146,000,000 tons per year. Due to factors such as plant maintenance and raw materials, the capacity utilization rate declined. Local refineries' delayed coking units accounted for 47% of the total capacity, ranking first; Sinopec accounted for 31%, ranking second; PetroChina accounted for 16%, ranking third; and CNOOC accounted for 6%. In 2026, some new capacities are planned, and the overall processing capacity is expected to increase slightly. The main projects for new delayed coking units in China in 2026 include: PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical's 6,000,000 tons per year delayed coking unit, Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Co., Ltd.'s 1,600,000 tons per year delayed coking unit, and Hebei Lunte's 2,000,000 tons per year residual oil deep processing project.

China's petroleum coke production

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, China's cumulative petroleum coke production was 28,770,000 tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year; the production in November was 2,596,000 tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year. Based on the regular output in December, the annual production is estimated to be about 31,000,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% year-on-year. Shandong is the largest production area, with a production of 881,000 tons in November and a cumulative production of 8,841,000 tons from January to November, accounting for more than 30%; Guangdong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, and others follow closely. In 2026, due to raw material constraints, the supply of low-sulfur coke will remain tight, the production range of medium-sulfur coke will expand, the supply of anode-specific coke will increase, and the production of high-sulfur and high-vanadium coke will decline. Overall, it is expected that China's petroleum coke production in 2026 will be 32,000,000 tons, an increase of about 3% year-on-year.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of 2025, China's petroleum coke import volume was 13.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%. Based on the usual arrivals in December, the estimated annual import volume is about 15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.86%. In the first six months, the import volume was 8.1822 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%. In the second quarter, due to the anticipation of tariff adjustments, there was a surge in imports as companies stockpiled in advance. The main import ports are located in downstream consumption areas such as Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, where port inventories accumulated in stages. In November 2025, both China and the United States confirmed that the 13% tariff on U.S. imports would be maintained for one year, which is beneficial for petroleum coke imports. It is estimated that the import volume in 2026 will be 15.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with the growth rate significantly slowing down compared to 2005. The main feature will be structural optimization.

According to the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2025, China's petroleum coke export volume was 204,400 tons, an increase of 15.74% year-on-year; based on the usual export volume in December, it is estimated that the full-year export volume will be about 230,000 tons, an increase of 22.28% year-on-year. From 2020 to 2025, China's petroleum coke export volume declined significantly, mainly due to tight supply in China, reduced export profits, and policy constraints; in 2026, the export volume is expected to recover from a low level, with a total volume of 250,000 tons, and the structure will shift towards medium and low sulfur high-quality coke, while the export of high sulfur coke will continue to be restricted.

Demand Side:

China's apparent consumption of petroleum coke

In 2025, the apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China is expected to be 45.77 million tons. In the first half of 2025, due to the expectation of tariffs, there was a surge in import volume as companies stockpiled in advance, leading to a significantly higher apparent consumption of petroleum coke compared to the second half of the year. Overall, the apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China in 2026 is expected to be around 47.25 million tons.

Electrolytic aluminum

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of electrolytic aluminum in 2025 was mainly characterized by wide fluctuations. The market price of aluminum on January 1st was 19,783.33 CNY/ton, and by December 31st, it was around 22,473.33 CNY/ton, with an annual price increase of 13.6%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of electrolytic aluminum from January to November 2025 was 41,433,000 tons, and the total production for 2025 is expected to be around 45,200,000 tons, an increase of 3.14% compared to 43,822,000 tons in 2024. In 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high and approached the capacity ceiling. The expected increase in electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is roughly the same as the previous year. It is estimated that China's electrolytic aluminum production will reach 46,000,000 tons in 2026.

metallic silicon

According to the commodity market analysis system, the market price of metallurgical silicon (#441) in 2025 showed a trend of first declining and then oscillating at a medium-low level. On January 1, 2025, the reference market price for metallurgical silicon (#441) was 11,690 CNY/ton, and on December 31, 2025, it was 9,620 CNY/ton, with a full-year price decrease of 17.71%. The highest annual price was 11,690 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 8,620 CNY/ton, with a fluctuation of 26.26%. From 2021 to 2024, China's metallurgical silicon production capacity steadily increased. In 2025, the production capacity of metallurgical silicon continued to be released, reaching approximately 7,846,000 tons, an increase of 8.94% year-on-year. In 2026, it is expected that the supply side of metallurgical silicon may still see a slight expansion, with the focus of capacity expansion shifting towards the northwest, but the new capacity is limited, estimated to be from previously uncommissioned projects, about 700,000 tons. The increase in new capacity is relatively controllable, and the situation of overcapacity is unlikely to fundamentally change in the short term.

glass

According to the commodity market analysis system, the glass market in 2025 experienced a volatile downward trend. On January 1, the market price of glass was 16.40 CNY/ton, and by December 31, it had decreased to around 12.75 CNY/ton, representing an annual price decrease of 22.26%. In 2025, China's daily melt volume of float glass was approximately 145,000 tons, with petroleum coke accounting for about 20.77% as a fuel source. Based on the consumption of 0.12-0.15 tons of petroleum coke per ton of glass, the annual demand for fuel-grade petroleum coke in the glass industry was estimated to be around 4.8-5.0 million tons, a decrease of 1%-3% year-over-year. The weakening demand was mainly due to sluggish real estate completions and the tightening of environmental policies.

anode material

In 2025, China's lithium-ion battery anode material market experienced a dual explosion of scale expansion and industrial transformation. The core driving force behind market growth came from the strong demand resonance in the two key application areas of power batteries and energy storage, with the energy storage sector standing out particularly, becoming the main driver of downstream anode demand. The total production of anode materials for the year 2025 was approximately 2,950,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.6%. The import dependence on anode-grade petroleum coke remained as high as 45%, but with the release of China's needle coke production capacity, the process of import substitution is expected to accelerate, with the localization rate projected to rise above 75% by 2030. In 2026, the industry is expected to continue its growth trend, with total production forecasted to reach 3,260,000 tons, and the energy storage market becoming the new growth engine.

2026 Oil Coke Market Trend Forecast

(1) Supply and Demand Landscape: Both supply and demand are growing, but the shortage of low-sulfur coke remains prominent in China.

Supply side: In 2026, multiple delayed coking units with a total capacity of approximately 5.7 million tons per year are expected to be commissioned in China. These new units will mainly be distributed in the Northeast, Northwest, North, and East China regions, bringing new supply increments to the Chinese petroleum coke market. According to the latest data, the total additional capacity of delayed coking units in China from 2026 to 2030 will reach 950,000 tons per year, with most of it concentrated in the East China region. In terms of imports, in November 2025, both China and the United States clearly stated that a 13% tariff on U.S. imports will be implemented for one year, and the import volume of petroleum coke may steadily increase.

The demand side is clearly driven by growth, and the aluminum-carbon industry still has new capacity under construction awaiting commissioning, which is expected to keep driving steady growth in demand for petroleum coke. Orders for negative-electrode materials used in energy storage and power applications continue to rise, providing strong ongoing support for demand for petroleum coke. Demand for graphite electrodes, carbon electrodes, and metallurgical silicon is expected to increase slightly. Demand in the silicon carbide and glass markets is forecast to decline. In the southern fuel market, demand for high-sulfur fuels is expected to remain weak but stable.

(2) Price Trends: Structural differentiation intensifies, with low-sulfur coke remaining at high levels.

In 2026, the overall price of petroleum coke is expected to show a "strong and fluctuating" trend, with further intensification of structural differentiation. The tightening of environmental policies will lead to a reduction in high-sulfur coke supply and a tight supply of low-sulfur coke, driving up prices. Downstream demand will grow steadily, especially in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and energy storage, which will boost the demand for petroleum coke. Low crude oil prices will to some extent curb the rise in petroleum coke prices, but the supply-demand gap and environmental costs will push prices up. Low-sulfur coke, driven by the demand for lithium battery anodes, will maintain a high price range of 3000-5000 CNY/ton; medium-sulfur coke, supported by traditional industrial demand, is expected to have a price range of 1700-3000 CNY/ton; high-sulfur coke, due to the continued fuel substitution effect, will remain at a low price range of 900-1800 CNY/ton.