Cost-Driven Acrylic Acid Prices Fluctuate Higher

January 20th, News

Entering 2026, the Chinese acrylic acid market did not see the expected "auspicious start," but instead, under the dual pressure of continuously rising raw material costs and weak terminal demand recovery, it fell into a "stagnant deadlock" where prices are difficult to rise or fall. This aligns with the trend of "no effective rebound" throughout 2025.

Price Trend:

Weekly Changes: After entering January 2026, prices have gradually stabilized. As of January 20, the benchmark price for acrylic acid stood at 6,000.00 CNY/ton, representing a 2.56% increase compared to the beginning of this month (5,850.00 CNY/ton).

Cost side:

Propylene feedstock prices have risen: Recently, propylene prices have been strong, with the estimated price range in Shandong region increasing to 5750–5810 CNY/ton, and there is upward pressure. As the direct raw material for acrylic acid, propylene accounts for more than 60% of the cost, and this round of price increases has directly raised the production cost of acrylic acid in China.

Narrowing profit margins: Although acrylic acid prices have rebounded slightly, the price increase has fallen far short of the rise in the cost of its raw material—propylene—leading to further compression of production profits. By the end of 2025, industry profit per ton had already plummeted to a low level. Under current cost pressures, small and medium-sized enterprises with high costs may face losses, forcing them to cut or halt production.

Supply Side:

The resumption of production at some facilities (such as one unit in Zibo) has boosted local supply, yet the industry’s overall operating rate remains constrained. Prices have remained below the cost line for an extended period, triggering capacity elimination; as a result, some enterprises have scheduled maintenance or delayed restarting their operations.

Demand Side:

Downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives are in the traditional off-season, with procurement mainly consisting of small, essential orders. The export market is under pressure, as weak global demand and competition from low-cost production capacity in the Middle East are restraining export growth.

Short-term outlook:

The market is showing a relatively strong oscillating trend, though upward room is limited. The cost support remains solid, and if acrylate prices continue to strengthen, acrylic acid prices will likely follow suit passively. Once prices touch the cost threshold of 5,800 CNY/ton, further downside pressure will intensify, triggering a contraction in supply. On the demand side, there’s been no significant improvement; downstream players remain largely cautious, and some factories may even shut down ahead of the Spring Festival. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and any rebound could spur the release of existing capacity, thereby suppressing price increases.

price range： It is expected that in the short term, the mainstream price in the East China market will fluctuate within the range of 5900–6200 CNY/ton. A breakthrough would depend on a significant increase in costs or an unexpected reduction in supply.