September 30th, it was reported
According to the Spotcom AI assistant, the recent spot price of 180CST fuel oil in China has been continuously rising. Based on the average difference analysis, the current market is in a strong rebound and fluctuation phase with a bullish nature. The price has reached a high level over the past year, and the room for further increases is relatively limited. The cost support from upstream crude oil still exists. Below are the specific analysis details:
I. Data Description
The most recent available data is up to September 29, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Value as of 2026-09-29 (CNY/ton) | Value as of 2026-09-28 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 42.5 | 30.0 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 3.75 | 2.5 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 163.75 | 190.62 | - |
Three, Signal Status Judgment
The current combination of sign changes in the divided differences is (+, +, -), which matches the characteristics of a strong rebound (bullish, rebound‑type) signal.
IV. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the change in direction of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day is not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and thus belongs to an oscillating range, with a short-term bias towards bullishness.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Fuel oil 1-year cycle price is at the 5th level out of 5 levels (high position), with limited upside potential.
VI. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
VII. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Spot price: On September 29, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil in China was quoted at 7500-8000 CNY/ton. The self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil in Shanghai by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) was quoted at 7650 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day.
Import data: In August 2026, China’s fuel oil import volume was 1.2952 million tons; from January to August, the cumulative fuel oil import volume reached 11.7236 million tons.
Cost side: Upstream Brent crude oil prices remain at the upper end of their nearly one-year cycle, providing some support to fuel oil prices.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
